Why do I like looking at the betting markets more than the polls?
Because money doesn’t often lie, and Las Vegas isn’t often wrong, at least when it comes to betting on the outcome of certain events like sports and political races.
So I love looking at the betting markets over at Polymarket and boy oh boy was I in for a treat when I loaded their site today….
President Trump is suddenly surging, now at his largest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race — 54% (Trump) to 45.4% (Kamala):
Trump's lead is up to 8.6% in the odds today.
He's nearing his biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/PpJtjyxnZ0
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
That’s an 8.6 point lead for President Trump and it continues to widen as we head into the final 30 days of the race:
BREAKING: Trump now leads Harris by a whopping 8.6 points, according to Polymarket odds. pic.twitter.com/faGvWwqoaH
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) October 7, 2024
The surge comes after his HISTORIC return to Butler, PA with Elon Musk:
Trump had a 6 POINT LEAD in PA odds prior to Butler rally.
WHAT WILL TOMORROW LOOK LIKE AFTER THIS? https://t.co/BVBOWNLve9 pic.twitter.com/dGnBgeuGbD
— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) October 6, 2024
Absolutely iconic:
🚨Just in: Elon Musk will hit the campaign trail for President Trump this month. This will include @elonmusk making multiple visits to the state of Pennsylvania.
Via: Politico pic.twitter.com/zY4glxuRK4
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 7, 2024
According to Polymarket, President Trump also holds commanding leads in these 3 Swing States (totalling 46 electoral votes):
But trails in these 3 Swing States (totalling 31 electoral votes):
Meanwhile, the Senate is also primed to go RED, but not the House:
And the odds of a clean RED WAVE sweep stand at 32%:In
RELATED REPORT:
Predicted EVERY Winner Since 1984 – This Poll Points to this Year’s Election Winner
Predicted EVERY Winner Since 1984 - This Poll Points to this Year's Election Winner
"You guys want some cookies?"
A bakery in Cincinnati came up with a clever way at predicting the winner of presidential elections.
They simply make cookies representing the candidates and see who sells more.
AND they've been accurate at predicting every election since 1984.
(The company says they've been accurate "except for 1 year" because of Biden's "win", but we all know he didn't win. So that makes their prediction 100% accurate)
And the current number on sales have come in, though we're still a little over a month away from the finish line.
Kamala Harris cookies have sold 2,134, so far.
And President Donald Trump cookies have sold 2, 953. A clear lead!
Also, now I'm hungry. Good thing they deliver!
Trump leads Cincinnati ‘cookie’ poll that has predicted every election but one since 1984 https://t.co/i515pEl2h6 pic.twitter.com/leEiF9uEFa
— New York Post (@nypost) September 23, 2024
BREAKING: A Cincinnati bakery, whose “cookie poll” has accurately predicted every election outcome but one since 1984, currently shows Trump leading Harris.
Trump cookies -2,953
Harris cookies - 2,134
“Independent” cookie - 397 pic.twitter.com/dqoSb35IWq— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) September 24, 2024
New York Post reports:
Donald Trump’s campaign is getting some dough-lightful news out of Ohio.
A beloved Cincinnati bakery, whose “cookie poll” has accurately predicted every election outcome but one since 1984, currently has the former president and Republican nominee leading Democrat Kamala Harris in its unscientific survey.
Trump notched about 54% support (2,953 cookies) to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies), with an “independent” smiley-face cookie scoring 7% (397 cookies), per the latest tally shared with The Post by Busken Bakery.
The cookie poll will remain open until election day on Nov. 5, so the tallies reflect the result of “early voting” by those with a sweet tooth.
“We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” bakery president and CEO Dan Busken told The Post.
To contribute data, customers simply purchase the cookie of their preferred candidate online or at one of Busken’s four area stores.
Each cookie purchase counts as a single vote, and there is no limit to how many a customer can buy.
Despite the lack of psephological rigor, the “poll” has been remarkably accurate in the ten elections it’s predicted so far.
The only result it’s missed was last year’s victory by Democrat Joe Biden.
Wait til that election gets fixed. Then they can rightful say they've claimed 100% accuracy of the elections since 1984.
So if you want to order your President Trump Republican cookies, you can get a batch of them for only $15, here at Busken Bakeries.
ANOTHER Real World Poll Shows CRUSHING Victory For President Trump Over Kamala Harris!We don't get any compensation for mentioning this bakery, but we thought it would be fun to help them out and boost Trump's numbers.
Then we can check the numbers and do a follow up report.
Let's see Trump sales break the 3,000 barrier and leave Kamala in the dust!
It's not the first of its kind either, this was just a few weeks ago in Philly:
ANOTHER Real World Poll Shows CRUSHING Victory For President Trump Over Kamala Harris!
The paid pollsters are telling us this is a 50/50 race between President Trump and Kamala Harris.
Some even say Kamala is leading!
And yet, every "real world" poll shows the exact opposite.
One by one, they're all consistent and showing wins for President Trump in the 70-90%+ range!
Here's the latest....
A Philadelphia bakery near the location of tonight's debate decided to sell RED Trump cookies and BLUE Kamala cookies as a sort of "poll" among their customers.
NOTE: the poll was not completely unbiased, as this is a notable "BLUE" county in prior elections.
So you might expect it to skew towards Kamala.
Except.....?
It didn't.
NOT.
EVEN.
CLOSE.
Nope, with 4,228 cookies sold for President Trump and only 369 (!!) for Kamala, President Trump has a commanding 91.97% victory margin!
Take a look:
A Philadelphia-area bakery not far from where the debate is being held tonight is selling special Trump and Kamala cookies during election season. These are the total sales so far:
Trump: 4,228
Kamala: 369
This is a blue county too pic.twitter.com/6r84U7jUqp
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 10, 2024
Interestingly, this bakery has done this "informal poll" in each of the last 4 elections and their polling has accurately predicted the winner of the election in all but ONE year.
Care you guess which one they (allegedly) got wrong?
Of course, it was 2020.
And I'm not sure sure they don't actually have a perfect 4 for 4 streak:
The bakery has hosted this informal poll since 2012, predicting the outcome of three of the last four elections.
Their winning streak came to an end in 2020 when the final cookie tally put Trump in the lead with 31,804 cookies over Biden's 5,750.
If this isn’t undeniable proof… pic.twitter.com/pMjo83hT1k
— AlphaFo𝕏 (@Alphafox78) September 10, 2024
Here is a picture of the tally on the wall showing the count:
Full screen video player here:
The bakery has hosted this informal poll since 2012, predicting the outcome of three of the last four elections.
Their winning streak came to an end in 2020 when the final cookie tally put Trump in the lead with 31,804 cookies over Biden's 5,750.
If this isn’t undeniable proof… pic.twitter.com/pMjo83hT1k
— AlphaFo𝕏 (@Alphafox78) September 10, 2024
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