President Trump Shifts 19 States His Direction – Just This Past Week!

As the days tick ever closer to Election Day and final tallies (we hope…), one thing seems to be consistently proving true — President Trump is once again breaking the mold for pollsters.

And there are many reasons to believe that his true numbers may be WELL beyond what the average poll is allowed to show!  (That’s EXACTLY what happened in 2016 AND in 2020!)

One ripple in the fabric that I think gives us a more accurate glimpse at something a little closer to reality is this:

19 states have shifted to Donald Trump in past week—Nate Silver model https://t.co/PDewpszVHk

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) October 11, 2024

That is a lot of momentum for it to become visible in only a week’s time!  But that’s exactly what Nate Silver (a Democrat… remember?) is showing happened this past week, using his unique polling model.

According to that Newsweek story, Nate’s numbers are showing President Trump not only made “marginal gains” in six swing states over the past week… but also in Florida, and Texas, and New Mexico… and…. New Hampshire, and… California!?… and Montana, Washington, Massachusetts, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Nebraska — PLUS GAINS in EVERY OTHER STATE (besides Georgia) where He is already in the lead!

The former president’s largest gain was in Florida, where he picked up 1.8 points in the past week. He now leads Harris by 5.2 points in the state.

In Nebraska, Maryland and California, he increased his vote share by 1.6 points, 1.1 points and 1.3 points, respectively. Nebraska is a solidly Republican state, while Maryland and California are Democratic strongholds. In all the other non-battleground states, the former president has made marginal gains of less than 1 point.

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The former president has also made marginal gains in every swing state other than Georgia, where he is in the lead. His biggest gain was in Michigan, where his vote share increased by 0.9 points. Harris is leading in Michigan, which Biden flipped in 2020, by 1.1 points, according to Silver’s forecast.

In Wisconsin, Trump gained 0.8 points, and Harris leads by 1.2 points. In the other swing states that Harris leads, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Trump has gained 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively.

The ramifications for what has been happening over a longer time period than just last week are starting to really show up strong when it comes to the Electoral map and Trump’s chances to win, and win BIG.

🚨 BREAKING: Trump flips Nevada in New RealClearPolitics No Toss Ups Map against Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/FsqJHNyBSZ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 11, 2024

Oh, yeah.  Did I forget to mention that President Trump has FLIPPED Wisconsin!?  Add that to the list… ✔

According to a different Newsweek article, the flipping of Wisconsin was no small feat, and could be HUGE in determining the next President!  The battle isn’t won yet, even in Wisconsin… but it is well within the realm of likely possibilities that President Trump doesn’t just win, but wins big, if this trend continues!

A key swing state has flipped in favor of Donald Trump, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker shows that, with no toss-up states, Michigan has flipped in favor of Trump, with the former president now half a point ahead of his opponent, Kamala Harris, in the state, on 48.5 percent to her 48 percent. It’s the first time that the tracker has shown Trump ahead in the state, which Joe Biden flipped to blue in 2020, since July 29.

Obviously, the backlash to Nate Silver’s unique modeling is fierce and stubborn from democrats.  Social media is ablaze with condemnation towards Nate and his Trump-loving polling models.  (I did mention… Nate Silver is not pro-Trump, right?)

But last I checked, being a pollster doesn’t mean you have to keep your personal opinions to yourself — and Nate Silver didn’t.  Just this morning he hit back and his fellow democrats for being “the pettiest people I’ve ever seen in politics.”  And to add “in politics” to that accusations, that’s really saying something!

These Biden folks are the pettiest people I've ever seen in politics. Keep in mind that they were poll deniers and had to be rescued by the adults in the party from a near-certain loss to Trump.https://t.co/C0ptdyTMky pic.twitter.com/MBQxPtFyGs

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 13, 2024

People tend to “marry” whatever idea, person, team, or concept they agree with.  So it’s no surprise really that folks who have long supported Biden and Kamala would be mad at Nate Silver for going against that grain.  Nevertheless, if the “norms” of American elections haven’t been stretched beyond their usual limits during this election year, I don’t know what else you would call it.

The fact is, the train wreck that is the Kamala-Walz ticket looked like it might be avoided, for a time.  They pushed Biden out of the way, caught a fresh breeze, and suddenly “joy and hope” magically filled the air around the democratic ticket.

But you can only run on the steam of jettisoned baggage for so long.  And it’s been too long for the minor relief of Joe Biden’s exit to carry anyone to a national victory — much less two inept wanna-be leaders like Kamala Harris and Timothy Walz.  (Stick around here and I might tell you how I really feel.)

And in the meantime… that Trump Train is gaining momentum, building steam, and has been making GAINS every single time the democrat ticket shows just how out of touch and off the rails they really are, compared to the quality leadership of President Trump.

And I wouldn’t be surprised, come November, if the Electoral Map looked a lot like Reagan vs Mondale once the dust settles – one tiny spot of blue in a sea of red.  It has happened before.  It can happen again.  And it just might be.