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Political Forecaster Who Accurately Predicted Previous U.S. Presidential Winners Gives His Pick For 2024 Election

A political historian who has accurately predicted every presidential winner since 1984 has declared Joe Biden has the edge over Trump in their 2024 matchup.

History professor Allan Lichtman has developed a system called the ’13 Keys’ that has helped him predict the winner of the U.S. presidential race in the last four decades.

Litchman claimed under the Key system Biden currently holds five of the 13 keys, whereas Trump only holds three.

According to Lichtman, the 13 keys allow him “to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics, or campaign events.”

Here’s what the Daily Mail reported:

A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that Joe Biden currently has the edge over Donald Trump – but the race remains open.

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms ’13 Keys’, and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

He says the technique enables him ‘to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics, or campaign events.’

Lichtman told Market Watch he believed Biden was currently in the lead, with five of the 13 keys. Trump has three – but the tally could still move.

‘A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden,’ said Lichtman.

‘But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction.’

Per The Hill:

A notable forecaster of presidential elections said in a recent interview that “a lot would have to go wrong for [President Biden] to lose” in November.
In an interview with The Guardian released Friday, American University professor Allan Lichtman pointed to his method to predict presidential elections using 13 “keys” including whether “the incumbent party candidate is the sitting president” and “there is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.” Lichtman noted that Biden is the incumbent and handily defeated others in the Democratic Party in the primary.

“That’s two keys off the top,” Lichtman said, according to The Guardian. “That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

Biden has been gaining on former President Trump in recent polls, tying with him in a recent Quinnipiac poll.
They are tied at 41.3 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average in a three-way race with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Lichtman has a history of correctly picking the winner of presidential elections since the mid-’80s. He predicted Biden would win the 2020 election over Trump, and he said in The Guardian interview that the COVID-19 pandemic “is what did him in.”

In 2016, Litchman accurately predicted Trump would win:


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