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BREAKING: MAGA Heavy Weight Surges to LEAD in Texas GOP Primary (UPDATE!)

All three primary contenders for John Cornyn’s Texas seat in the US Senate have campaigned on ties to President Trump.

In some of the more blue-ish areas of the country, that might hurt a campaign.

But in Texas, more voters are trusting Ken Paxton’s link to the President — at least according to the most recent poll numbers to come out.

According to those numbers, Ken Paxton is set to take Cornyn’s Senate seat!

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Here’s how it’s playing out:

It’s still too early to have anything tangible to pull from today’s exit polls… but those numbers should be out shortly!

Down here in Texas, that link to President Trump is definitely GOOD NEWS for a campaign.

And as we wait for exit polls and true vote counts, all signs are pointing to a win for Ken Paxton over Cornyn in the Texas primary.

Even if it takes a runoff in May for it to happen.  (Still waiting on the vote counts on that one!)

The incumbent Cornyn has shot himself in the foot more than once, making the average Texan cringe.

While Ken Paxton has consistently captured the appreciation of conservatives, Trump-supporters, and MAGA alike.

One of Cornyn’s unforgotten hiccups came years ago — but Texans don’t forget! — when he went all lovey-dovey with Islam, going so far as to wish them the equivalent of Happy Ramadan in Arabic:

That, along with a few other moments Texans haven’t forgotten… have brought us to this point.

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Now, the numbers show Paxton ahead with a sizeable margin.

Here’s a screenshot of the latest polling numbers from the Emerson College Polling website:

Here’s that breakdown in case that isn’t clear:

Ken Paxton: 40%
John Cornyn: 36%
Wesley Hunt: 17%
Someone else: 8%

Now, my primary headline had to do with those polling numbers.

And I know the betting markets aren’t an exact science…

But as I dug through those survey poll numbers, I came across the recent Polymarket numbers on the race.

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Science or not, those willing to put their money where their mouth is are betting on Paxton’s ability to rip Cornyn’s seat right out from under him!

Check out these numbers as a little context for how HEATED the race has gotten between Cornyn and Paxton, if nothing else:

Hunt’s candidacy is definitely complicating things for Paxton and Cornyn.

But Paxton’s relentless assault in attack ads and campaign events have taken their toll on Cornyn’s supposed incumbent “boost”, according to this from the Associated Press:

Cornyn faces a challenge from MAGA favorite Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt in a contest that’s expected to advance to a May runoff between the top two vote-getters. The three Republicans have campaigned on their ties to Trump, who has not endorsed in the race.

Cornyn hopes to avoid becoming the first Republican senator in Texas history not to be renominated.

Paxton began campaigning in earnest only last month. He’s made national headlines for filing lawsuits against Democratic initiatives. He remained popular in Texas despite a 2023 impeachment trial on corruption charges, of which he was acquitted, and accusations of marital infidelity by his wife.

All three Republicans have run ads boasting of their coziness with Trump.

Hunt’s entry into the race in October made it trickier for any primary candidate to win at least 50%, the threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff. (Emphasis added.)

As was highlighted in that story, a May runoff is still expected.

It would take at least 50% of the vote for any of the contenders to avoid a runoff.

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Fox News dropped the following update a few days ago with Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt each getting their say in.

Jump to about the 2-minute mark in this Fox News report to hear Paxton and Cornyn’s basic take on each other, boiled down to the nuts and bolts:

Cornyn has consistently pointed to Paxton as having questionable morals.

Paxton has consistently pointed out Cornyn’s shifty political alliances and dismal track record.

And Texas voters are demonstrably siding with Paxton over Cornyn’s pleas to send him back to the Senate in DC.

As a Texan myself, I can tell you that many hardcore Republicans, Conservatives, and pro-Trump voters simply do not TRUST John Cornyn — and we haven’t for awhile, now.

That doesn’t mean people are walking around with rose-colored glasses when it comes to Ken Paxton.

But Texas voters, like those across the country who cast ballots for President Trump November of 2024, aren’t looking for perfection.

They’re looking mostly for LOYALTY.

They want what most Trump supporters want in general; do what you say, and don’t play political games just for the sake of your own ability to hold on to power.

And Cornyn is paying a price for coming up short in that particular metric.

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Again, polls don’t carry the day.  Those ballots will all need to be counted.

But check this out.

Who would you suspect that Cornyn is performing “significantly better” with?

According to those numbers from the Emerson College poll… well, I’ll let the poll numbers speak for themselves — as reported by USA Today:

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Paxton with a slight lead heading into the primary, but short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1% with a sample size of 547.

Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, while Paxton holds a lead (44% to 32%) among likely Election Day voters, according to the survey.

According to the poll, Paxton leads among respondents who were 2024 Trump voters, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%, while the incumbent senator is performing “significantly better” among voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris or another candidate in 2024, winning 49% of that group compared to 8% for Paxton. (Emphasis added.)

Did you catch that?  The part I highlighted in bold???

John Cornyn is performing exceptionally well with those Texas voters who voted for Kamala Harris, or (I read it as follows): ANY OTHER CANDIDATE BUT TRUMP.

Yeah.  That ought to tell us something.  (And according to those polls, Texans are paying attention!)

Paxton has also capitalized on a recent comment by Cornyn that characterized Texas primary voters as “radical”.

I’m guessing Cornyn is regretting those words right about now.

Here’s a post Ken Paxton shared via his X account just this morning, highlighting Cornyns most recent “unfortunate” comments:

Here’s the full clip of Cornyn’s comments in full screen mode, for easier viewing:

Paxton took Cornyn to task over those comments for what he said about Texas voters.

But if those polling numbers are anywhere near accurate, reality is about to take Cornyn to task for something ELSE he said in that clip.

He flat out said that Ken Paxton is “unelectable” and wouldn’t be able to pull it together in the general election.

According to those most recent polling numbers, most Texas voters took that as just another attempt by Cornyn to pull off a politically motivated character assassination against Paxton.

As I said, polls don’t determine election results.

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Votes do.

Anything can happen between now and the final count, as we all fully know by now.

But if what you want is someone unabashedly loyal to President Trump (not just when Trump is standing with his foot on the neck of his enemies)…

And if you want a strong MAGA Senator to take the place of a RINO gatekeeper (if that seemed sarcastic, I didn’t mean it to be)…

Then this story likely put a smile on your face, and is causing a warm fuzzy feeling to spread in your heart, even now.

I hope so.

And I hope the final count proves these polling numbers true.

We’ll bring you the final call once it’s all said and done, either way!

—————————————————–

UPDATE as of 9:00 PM CST here in Texas:

The full primary vote count is still super tight.  And too early to say who ‘won’.

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But I’m starting to see posts like the following pop up.

Keep in mind, something like 48% of the votes have been tallied at the moment I am writing this.

But as Nick Sortor is pointing out, that means that none of the candidates received the minimum 50% of the vote, which guarantees a runoff:

Here’s the full text of Sortor’s post:

BREAKING: Texas AG Ken Paxton and RINO Sen. John Cornyn are heading to a RUN-OFF election for the Republican TX U.S. Senate primary, as neither of them received 50% of the vote

President Trump MUST endorse Ken Paxton!

That gun-grabbing, anti-Trump Cornyn MUST GO!

The runoff will take place in May.

It is still too early to tell whether Paxton or Cornyn came out on top and “won” the primary, in terms of besting the other.

But regardless, we can be sure of a runoff election in May to find out whether Cornyn gets to keep his seat in the US Senate…

Or if a full-blooded MAGA Trump supporter gets to bring it!


 

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