Surprising Poll Shows Trump Ally Leading Incumbent Democrat Governor

In a shocking poll released Tuesday, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leads incumbent Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in the state’s gubernatorial election.

The Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, has the Republican congresswoman leading Hochul 43 percent to 42 percent.

WOW! SHOCK New York governor 2026 poll finds Republicans have a chance at WINNING

Elise Stefanik: 43% (+1)
Kathy Hochul: 42%

Stefanik: 43% (+6)
Anthonio Delgado: 37%

Can Rep. Stefanik really flip New York red?

Manhattan Institute (R) | 10/22-26 | N=300RV pic.twitter.com/EHtkYJ717x

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2025

Manhattan Institute shared more:

With New York City’s mayoral election just one week away, new data offer a clear snapshot of voters’ mindsets as they begin heading to the ballot box. Findings indicate that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani remains on track to win the mayoralty—drawing 46% to former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 31% and Guardian Angels CEO Curtis Sliwa’s 21%, once the 8% of voters who remain undecided are taken out of the equation.

With a sizable and divided anti-Mamdani portion of the electorate, the socialist assemblyman appears to have enough support to secure the simple plurality needed for victory—even though his winning vote share may fail to clear a majority, something NYC has not seen since John Lindsay’s election to the office in 1969. Although this poll does take into account the higher turnouts among younger voters seen in the primary, a high turnout among young people could tip Mamdani over that majority threshold.

The poll also reveals a striking dissonance between Mamdani’s electoral strength and support for his progressive policy program. New Yorkers favor harsher penalties for fare evasion, are eager to repeal the state’s 2019 bail reform law, have hesitations about making buses free, and support meritocracy in public education.

Beyond the five boroughs, the poll also detects early tremors in statewide politics. In a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial matchup, Republican Elise Stefanik leads Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul by one point (43–42) among registered voters, and posts a six-point advantage over her lieutenant governor and primary challenger, Antonio Delgado (43–37). While more than a year remains until Election Day, these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades.

NEW POLL: Rep. Elise Stefanik narrowly leading incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul in NY gov race https://t.co/dF5z9JDrLn

— The Hill (@thehill) October 28, 2025

Stefanik called Hochul the “Worst Governor in America” after the Democrat spoke at a rally supporting New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

The Worst Governor in America @KathyHochul did more than bend the knee to the raging Antisemite, Defund the Police, Commie Mamdani.

Hochul enthusiastically cheered with the jihadist terrorist sympathizer saying:

“Elect Zohran and we take back America!”

New Yorkers will never… pic.twitter.com/xO8monW7C6

— Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) October 26, 2025

The Hill noted:

Nine percent of those surveyed said they support someone else, while 7 percent said they are “not sure.”

The results mark a major reversal from just a couple of months ago, when an August Siena College poll showed Hochul with a 14-point lead over Stefanik.

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The two have targeted each other in recent remarks and ads, with the GOP representative slamming Hochul for endorsing New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. The same Manhattan Institute survey found Mamdani holding a commanding lead over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent.

“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule,” Bernadette Breslin, Stefanik’s campaign spokesperson, said in a statement.

“Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York,” she added.