JP Morgan Changes Prediction After President Trump Makes Deal With China

The sky is falling!! Oh, wait a minute. No, it’s fine. We’re okay now.

That seems to be the call of JP Morgan.

After ramping up the fear of impending doom, they’ve shifted down a few gears.

You see, JPMorgan cut its US recession forecast to 40% range.

This comes after a 90-day tariff truce with China.

That’s down from a prior 60% chance.

They now see 0.6% growth in 2025, up from 0.2%.

Also, they expect inflation to ease up as well.

I thought all was lost? I thought doom & gloom was guaranteed now that President Trump is in charge?

JP Morgan has called off their projection of a recession in 2025.

Trump was right again.

— Ryan Fournier (@RyanAFournier) May 13, 2025

The Post Millennial reports:

JP Morgan has lowered its prediction that the US will plunge into recession to “below 50 percent” as the Trump administration struck a deal with China for both countries to lower their tariffs for the next 90 days.

The firm had previously predicted that there was a 60 percent chance of recession taking place in 2025, but said on Tuesday in the wake of the deal with China, “The administration’s recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the U.S. economy slips into recession this year. We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%,” JPMorgan Chief US Economist Michael Feroli wrote.

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JPMorgan predicts that the US economy will grow by 0.6 percent in 2025, which is a large jump from their initial prediction of 0.2 percent growth. Feroli also predicts that inflation will rise less than expected because of the lowering of the tariffs.

The prediction comes as the Consumer Price Index report came out on Tuesday, indicating that the inflation rate lowered from 2.4 percent year over year in March to 2.3 percent in April. Additionally, the stock market rallied on Monday in reaction to the deal between the US and China.

🚨 NEW INFLATION REPORT:

-2.3% (lowest in 4 years), below expectations
-Largest Decline in Grocery Prices in 5 years
-JP Morgan RETRACTS Recession Call pic.twitter.com/nrhNfBphZD

— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) May 13, 2025

Things are looking up!

In case you’re keeping score, here’s what we learned today.

Inflation slowed more than expected.

Grocery prices fell by the largest amount in 5 years.

JP Morgan no longer feels like we are heading towards recession. They have “withdrawn” this prediction.

— Bones ⛳️ (@USCnDodgerBlue) May 13, 2025

Looks like the naysayers were wrong again:

JP Morgan Recession Odds

Jan 25’ Mar 25’ Apr 25’
30%———> 40% ——-> 60%

The greatest economy of my lifetime is on its way to be shredded https://t.co/1egw32psm4

— Zac Harmon 🌈 (@Zprtr1) April 4, 2025