POLL: California Has Strong Chance of Flipping Red in 2026 (With Beloved Actor The Favorite for GOP Governor!)

They say when the going gets tough, the tough get going.

But also, when things get too tough… people change how they vote.

That seems to be what is happening in California for the upcoming 2026 elections according to a new poll released this week.

The poll asked a series of questions to 700 likely California voters during a four day span in early March.

And one of the most amazing pieces of data to emerge from those questioned was a whopping 48 percent of California voters would consider casting a ballot for a Republican Governor of the Golden State in 2026.

NEW POLL: 48% of Californians would vote for a Republican Governor:

Republican Revolution Even Hitting California – KABC-AM https://t.co/4fOhL9TcCo

— Elizabeth Barcohana (@E_Barcohana) March 20, 2025

The answers given showed an overwhelming concern about California’s future under one-party rule, according to the president of Madison McQueen — a media firm that sponsored the polling.

And voters are ready for change, according to California’s local ABC affiliate KABC:

New polling released Thursday shows voters across California are feeling what is being called “the Trump Effect”, rejecting years of Democrat policies. Nearly half of likely California voters say they would consider voting for a Republican for Governor in 2026 (Republican party voter registration in California is just 25%). Polling was conducted in California over March 6th to 9th of likely Nov. 2026 voters by David Wolfson, a national Pollster, and Faculty Lecturer at Columbia University’s Political Analytics Graduate Program sponsored by the media firm Madison McQueen.

“Voters are increasingly concerned about the direction of California under one-party rule,” said Owen Brennan, president of Madison McQueen. “On issue after issue, voters are seeing their quality of life fall and their cost of living rise.”

“Are voters ready for a change from the policy priorities of Democrats?” Brennan asked. “With the right leadership and policy focus, California Republicans are looking at the biggest window of opportunity in a generation.”

Conservative author and California professor Thom Gilliam summed up the changes rather perfectly.

As I stated at the beginning of this article, once things get bad enough… votes start to change, just as Gilliam quipped on his X account:

📢WARNING. When things get bad enough…https://t.co/rofNfveKyl

— Dr. Thom, Ph.D., CPA 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 (@TAG2335) March 24, 2025

Likely voters surveyed for the newly released poll also indicated concern of gas prices, out of control utility costs, and the need for a “full independent investigation” into the LA wildfires.

Those surveyed also indicated they were concerned (a whopping 73 percent!) about the failure to fund anti-crime measures, according to Breitbart:

Per 790 KABC, the poll also found that 83 percent of voters feel that “gas prices are too high” in the state, and almost 25 percent of Californians believe that biological males who identify as transgender “should compete in female sports,” among other issues:

• 83% of voters said gas prices are too high in California

• 73% support fully funding anti-crime Prop. 36, which State Democrat Leaders have refused to do

• 72% feel homelessness still is a big problem after years of Democrat control Sacramento

• 71% believe the Democrats in charge have not addressed the state’s high cost of living

• 69% think Democrats in Sacramento have not done enough to bring down energy/utility costs

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• 62% support a “full independent investigation” of the recent Los Angeles Wildfires

• Only 24% of Californians think males (transgender) should compete in female sports

If the Democratic Party loses big in California in 2026, it will likely include not only a reshaping of the legislature which is mostly up for re-election…

But it could even land a Republican firmly in the Governor’s office, according to Newsweek:

California has historically been a heavily Democratic state, selecting a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But recent polls have indicated the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. It comes after the state shifted toward the GOP by 12 points in 2024 compared to 2020, with Donald Trump increasing his vote share in nearly every county in the state. The Republicans also flipped three seats in the state Legislature last year.

If the Democratic Party loses ground in California, it could reshape the state’s leadership as early as 2026, when the next governor will be elected and most of California’s state Legislature will be up for election.

Amid the GOP’s recent success in the state, the California Republican Party is now seeking to capitalize on that momentum and break the Democratic supermajority, California Senate Republican Leader Brian Jones told Newsweek.

“Our mission is clear: break the Democratic supermajority and Fix California. As Senate minority leader, that means flipping four Senate seats next election. Californians are fed up with one-party rule,” Jones said.

In another recent poll, the possibility that another actor could swing into the Governor’s office wearing a red tie rather than a blue tie seems to have become possible.

At least, it might be if the actor in question was interested — though he has firmly responded that he is definitely not interested.

However, the other poll I referenced, conducted by Humboldt County’s ‘Lost Coast Outpost‘ News, recently discovered that the Republican Governor most California voters would prefer is actor Mel Gibson!

Mel Gibson for California governor? A poll has emerged citing him as a popular Republican candidate to run for the office. https://t.co/eBalUsYKOa

— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) March 20, 2025

Gibson is apparently ‘flattered’ by the poll.

And considering his FIERY speech against Gov. Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass a few weeks ago, I am a bit surprised that he isn’t seriously considering a run for the Governor’s spot.

Check out this clip of his angry pushback against Newsome and Bass’s catastrophic mishandling and mismanagement of the situation leading up to the LA wildfires:

But he has been quick to dispel any notion that he might run for the California Governorship, according to a separate Breitbart news story:

In a new Lost Coast Outpost poll formulated on Wednesday, Gibson emerges as a surprising third place and the top Republican candidate with 12 percent of the vote.

TMZ reports Gibson – the man who directed, produced, co-wrote, and funded the film The Passion of the Christ (2004) amongst a host of other successes in Hollywood – is “flattered” to be considered and to have done so well in the poll but the chance of him running is somewhat less than zero.

The outlet continued, “We’re told Mel has never had any political ambitions — and that isn’t changing now even if voters are digging his criticisms of current Democratic leadership on the state and local level.”

Besides the shift in California’s likely voters, due in part to the ‘Trump Effect’, voter rolls are also on the rise among Republican voters.

Republicans have increased their registration numbers in California by hundreds of thousands, compared to Democrat registration which has actually shrunk over the last few years, according to the California Globe:

The poll follows on the results on the 2022 and 2024 elections, which showed a massive shift in Californians voting more and more for Republicans. In 2024 alone, Republicans gained three seats in the legislature, with a state Senate seat being flipped from Democrat to Republican in a presidential year for the first time since 1980. On the national level, California also showed a bounce back for the GOP, with Donald Trump garnering the most Republican votes in the state since George Bush in 2004.

In addition, voter rolls are on the rise for Republicans. Groups like Fix California have managed to boost the number of registered Republicans in the state by hundreds of thousands in only a few years, while Democrats have actually lost registered voters.

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Whizzco

However, the GOP has been a bit more sparse in terms of candidates so far, with the only candidate with electoral experience entering the race so far being Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. A handful of other candidates are currently mulling a run, including former State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle, former Olympian and 2021 Gubernatorial candidate Caitlyn Jenner, Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton, and Special Presidential Envoy, former Director of National Intelligence and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Other candidates entering are likely later this year, but as of Monday, this is the list.

Besides the backlash against numerous failed social policies and an utter failure of progressive crime policies, California is also reeling from the poorly coordinated response to the LA wildfires.

It is really no surprise, considering those conditions, that Californians are set to shift the fifth largest economy in the world on a path that leans more conservative than progressive.

And if President Trump’s next few months in office are as successful as the first two, no one should discount the impact that the ‘Trump Effect’ will continue to have on Californians as they head to the polls in 2026.