After losing control of the chamber in November’s election, Senate Democrats might typically be looking forward to the gains that the party out of power typically enjoys in the first midterm election after a new president is elected.
But for this legislative session, the 2026 election could play out to the GOP’s favor, as a number of factors seem to suggest.
As The Hill reported:
New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen on Wednesday became the third Democratic incumbent to announce she would not seek reelection in 2026, following Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith and Michigan Sen. Gary Peters.
Democrats could hold the Senate seats in all three states in 2026, as the party out of the White House historically gained ground in the first midterm election of a president’s term.
But it will certainly be more of an uphill climb without the three incumbents.
Democrats also lost a major recruit for the Michigan race when former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said he would not run for the Senate.
The end result is a map Republicans see as ripe with opportunities, and one where Democrats will be playing some defense.
Speculation surrounding the trio of announced exits has swirled on social media in recent days:
Amid ongoing infighting over the passage of a continuing resolution favored by President Donald Trump, Democrats also have to contend with plummeting approval ratings:
Fox News outlined how bad things have gotten for the party:
Just 29% of those questioned in a CNN poll released on Sunday say they have a favorable view of the party, with 54% holding an unfavorable view.
That’s a record low in CNN polling dating back more than three decades.
The Democrats’ favorability has dropped four points since early January, ahead of the start of President Donald Trump’s second tour of duty in the White House, and it’s a plunge of 20 points from January 2021, just ahead of the start of former President Joe Biden’s term in office.
Just 63% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents questioned in the survey said they hold a favorable view of the party, down from 72% in January and down from 81% four years ago, at the start of the Biden administration.
It was a similar story in an NBC News national poll also released on Sunday.
Just 27% of registered voters said they had a positive view of the Democratic Party, which was the party’s lowest rating in NBC News polling dating back to 1990. The NBC News poll was conducted March 7-11.
For the sake of comparison, here’s how White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt presented the Trump administration’s widespread approval earlier this month:
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