A new poll shows the New Jersey gubernatorial race between Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli in a statistical dead heat before next Tuesday’s election.
According to a Quantus Insights poll, Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 49 percent to 46 percent.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: New Jersey Governor 2025 | Sherrill +3 Over Ciattarelli | N=1,380 LVs | MoE ±2.6%
Governor (with leaners)
Mikie Sherrill: 49.2%
Jack Ciattarelli: 45.9%
Other: 2.6%
Undecided: 2.4%
–––––––––––––––––––
Leaners Only
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 28, 2025
Quantus Insights shared more:
In the battle for Drumthwacket, the latest Quantus Insights survey finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a slim edge over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 49% to 46%, (49.2% to 45.9% with leaners included) within the poll’s ±2.6% margin of error. The poll, fielded October 26–27 among 1,380 likely voters, paints a picture of a deeply divided electorate, with both parties eyeing a photo finish.
This isn’t the Jersey of 1993 or 2009. The demographic terrain has shifted. Today’s electorate is 71% white, but aging: 77% are over 45, and 36% are senior citizens. Women outnumber men 53% to 47%. Partisan ID shows a Democratic tilt: 44% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 21% unaffiliated.
Geographically, North Jersey remains the Democratic stronghold, South Jersey leans Republican, and the central corridor is up for grabs. That corridor—28% of the electorate—is likely to decide this election.
Only 29% of voters had cast their ballots by the time of the survey, but Democrats are leading the early charge. 35% of Democrats reported already voting, compared to just 24% of Republicans. Among early voters, 62% used vote-by-mail. Democrats dominate here: 75% of their early vote is by mail, compared to just 45% among Republicans.
Ciattarelli will need a strong Election Day showing, where he leads: 60% of those planning to vote on November 4 back him, versus 39% for Sherrill. But mail-in voters skew sharply Sherrill: 76% to 19%.
Ciattarelli’s campaign said it’s feeling good about Republicans matching Democrats in in-person early voting.
“The campaign says new and infrequent voters are showing up for Ciattarelli,” Fox News reported.
Check it out:
Backup here if needed:
Over 730,000 New Jersey residents have cast their vote in the governor’s election, and Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign is feeling good about Republicans matching Democrats in person early voting.
Fox News: “The campaign says new and infrequent voters are showing up for Ciattarelli.”… pic.twitter.com/dV7RJpf28K
— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) October 29, 2025
Republicans were urged to support Ciattarelli at the ballot box:
Every Republican in America should be bringing attention to Jack Ciattarelli for governor of New Jersey.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 29, 2025
The New Jersey Governor race is NECK AND NECK according to the polls.
Tell EVERY MAGA voter you know in this state to GET OUT and VOTE NOW!
There are HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of low propensity Trump voters who may or may not cast a ballot.
If just 85,000 of them do- we WIN! pic.twitter.com/sgQqUA1LYY
— Mike Crispi (@MikeCrispi) October 28, 2025
Newsweek noted:
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at 100 Percent Fed Up. View the original article here.The race for New Jersey governor is drawing national attention, with Sherrill and Ciattarelli running closer races in recent polls. As one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, the outcome provides an early indication of voter sentiment heading toward the 2026 midterms.
ADVERTISEMENTA shift in New Jersey—a state traditionally favoring Democrats—could signal broader changes in American political alignments and strategies, influencing both parties on national policy and campaign approaches.
In the poll by co/efficient, Sherrill has 48 percent of the potential vote compared to Ciattarelli’s 47 percent. The survey shows five percent remain undecided.
The poll surveyed 995 likely voters from October 23 to October 27 and has a 3.27 percent margin of error. The results of the gubernatorial race fall within the margin of error, making Ciattarelli and Sherrill statistically tied.
Sherrill has a 44 percent favorability rating versus a 45 percent unfavorable rating. Ciattarelli landed a 46 percent favorable and unfavorable rating.
Join the conversation!
Please share your thoughts about this article below. We value your opinions, and would love to see you add to the discussion!