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With Republicans in Rebellion, One POWERFUL Democrat Could Make or Break President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’

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All eyes are now looking ahead to tomorrow’s expected House vote on the Senate’s version of President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.

But there are problems, including an ongoing ‘mutiny’ within Republican ranks inside the House, which distrusts the Senate’s framework for the bill — specifically the lowball number in spending reduction.

There is also the issue of a comprehensive spending bill versus what had only recently become the mantra of Republicans, MAGA, and every Trump-supporter in between.

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It hasn’t been that long since everyone under the Republican political umbrella had sworn off ‘big’ bills jam packed with so many different pieces of legislation.

The idea was that we would be moving towards voting on key pieces of legislation separately — partly to avoid the pork spending.

And then…

Suddenly Thomas Massie became the bad guy, and the ‘ALL-IN-ONE’ bill became a good thing again — because Republicans realized they could get the votes they needed by bringing Democrats on board.

I’m sure at this point I have already managed to rile up nearly everyone.

That should give us a good picture of the dumpster fire currently under way in the House of Representatives when it comes to anything resembling CONSENSUS.

It’s simply not there; quite the opposite, actually.

The big PRINCIPLED reason for moving towards single-issue legislation had to do with ensuring that political opponents couldn’t sneak in ‘poison pills’ to kill a bill, or alternately score campaign slogans because legislators were in essence FORCED to vote a specific way based on one aspect of a huge bill, but pay the price politically because of legislation they would have rather voted on differently.

That new way of doing things seems to have gone away without much promise of bringing it back.

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Nevertheless, there are other issues that might sidetrack the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ once it comes down to it in tomorrow’s House proceedings.

And one of those issues isn’t being talked about all that much, because most people have never heard of her.

Yes, we’re talking about a person — Elizabeth MacDonough to be precise; a Democrat, though unelected.

She has served more than 13 years in the Senate, and wields arguably more power than any sitting member of Congress.

She is the Parliamentarian of the United States Senate, and she can make — or break — President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’… even if Republicans somehow get their act together and find consensus.

As Chad Pergram reported, Elizabeth MacDonough’s considerable power as Parliamentarian of the Senate would allow her to judge — according to Senate rules — what is and what isn’t allowed in the final version of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, according to Fox News:

Whether or not congressional Republicans are able to pass President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” of tax and spending cuts may hinge on one person. Not a swing vote. Not someone like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., or Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who occasionally bucks their party. But someone you’ve probably never heard of.

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After all, Washington is stocked with power players. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

But how about Elizabeth MacDonough?

Well, Elizabeth MacDonough is in fact in government. And when it comes to Congress, she’s one of the most powerful people you’ve never heard of.

MacDonough is the Senate parliamentarian. A sort of referee who decides what’s allowed in the big, beautiful bill pushed by President Trump — based on special Senate budget rules.

Everyone will watch what MacDonough rules is in or out. In fact, her calls could alter the trajectory of the president’s “big, beautiful bill.”

In researching this story, I had to do a deep dive into what the role of the Senate Parliamentarian really is — because honestly, I didn’t have much of a clue!

I’ll therefore treat you to some of the same boiled-down information that I came across in case you’re just as dumbfounded as I was on how an unelected ‘Official’ could wield so much power OVER Congressional legislation.

Here’s a great primer from the Washington Post to give you a feel for the role and political friction wrapped up in the Parliamentarian’s power:

As you saw in that video, the Parliamentarian is intended to be strictly non-partisan.

And often times… that seems to have played out.

Elizabeth MacDonough definitely angered Chuck Schumer and Democrats as a whole when she dictated that they couldn’t create a pathway to citizenship for ‘Dreamers’ when the plan was to attach that POLICY SHIFTING LEGISLATION to a BIG… COMPREHENSIVE… BUDGET BILL.

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That could prove to be a problem for Republicans, as well.

Here’s another example of her historic willingness to anger Democrats on pet legislation.

Check out this Bloomberg story from four years ago, detailing how MacDonough angered Democrats when she popped their hopes for a national minimum-wage increase — again, attached to a spending bill (which seems to be a big no-no according to Senate rules):

Those historic breaks with her fellow Democrats aside, you might have noticed my choice of a main headline picture for this story.

Those are still images taken from video following Obama’s 2015 State of the Union Address, which I found while searching for an image to use for this story.

Funny — all of the reporting that includes images of MacDonough from that event didn’t include those somewhat eye-raising images that seem to indicate quite a bit of close familiarity.

The most widely used image only showed the two shaking hands; nothing like the VERY PARTISAN FAMILIARITY (at the least…) which the images I used for my headline image seem to show.

I don’t know what you do with that information, except maybe to ponder just how ‘non-partisan’ MacDonough will actually be prepared to be when it comes to the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ with President Trump’s name attached.

But even before this mostly unknown unelected Democrat gets a chance to rip that bill to shreds, those other lingering problems could turn disastrous — notwithstanding President Trump’s full endorsement:

Here’s the full text of President Trump’s endorsement of the Senate’s version of his ‘Big Beautiful Bill’:

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The Budget Plan just passed by the United States Senate has my Complete and Total Endorsement and Support. All of the elements we need to secure the Border, enact Historic Spending Cuts, and make Tax Cuts PERMANENT, and much more, are strongly covered and represented in the Bill. Thank you to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and House Speaker Mike Johnson for their hard work and attention to detail. There is no better time than now to get this Deal DONE! The House, the Senate, and our Great Administration, are going to work tirelessly on creating “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” an appropriate name if Congress so likes. Everyone is going to be happy with the result. Passage will make, even the subject of World Trade, far easier and better for the U.S.A. THE HOUSE MUST PASS THIS BUDGET RESOLUTION, AND QUICKLY — MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Just an hour ago I noticed that President Trump took to this Truth Social account again, apparently in response to the ongoing conflicts among House Republicans who are set to vote on the Senate’s version of the bill.

He emphasized that the big price tag on the spending bill would be offset by cuts and reductions “hopefully in excess of $1 Trillion Dollars”.

Here’s the text from his most recent post on the issue:

I had a very good meeting today with the Speaker of the House and some of our more Conservative Members, all great people. I let them know that, I AM FOR MAJOR SPENDING CUTS! WE ARE GOING TO DO REDUCTIONS, hopefully in excess of $1 Trillion Dollars, all of which will go into “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” I, along with House Members and Senators, will be pushing very hard to get these large scale Spending Cuts done, but we must get the Bill approved NOW. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

That conversation with House Speaker Mike Johnson apparently came on the heels of today’s concerns among House Republicans.

The ‘disarray’ among Republicans in the House reportedly involves far more than just the Freedom Caucus; the usual suspects at the heart of the most recent Republican rebellions.

But Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris did emphasize his unwillingness to bend to President Trump’s agenda with this bill in particular, according to a different report by Fox News:

House Republicans are in disarray ahead of an expected Wednesday afternoon vote to advance the Senate’s version of a massive bill advancing President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Several people who spoke with Fox News Digital said they were concerned that even the president may not be able to sway holdouts ahead of a planned Wednesday vote – despite Trump’s ability to do so on key pieces of legislation on multiple occasions this year. A White House official said Trump is “actively engaging” on the issue.

Meanwhile, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris, R-Md., signaled to reporters that he turned the invitation down.

“There’s nothing I don’t understand about this issue. So, you know, let the president spend time with people who maybe will change their mind,” Harris said.

He said of Trump’s influence, “It’s not going to help getting enough votes to pass this week. It’s just, there too many members who are just not going to vote for it, no matter what.”

One key aspect of President Trump’s signature spending bill is that it would halt his 2017 tax cuts from expiring.

The legislation would continue those tax cuts, preventing the largest tax hike in American history, which WILL occur automatically if those cuts aren’t extended.

That is one of the key ‘carrots’ driving Republicans in the House towards an attempt at consensus, despite the differences and inter-party conflict.

No Republican wants to have that tax hike happen on their watch.

And that is one of the reasons that the Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, is being taken into account alongside many of the ‘conversations’ that Senate Majority Leader John Thune says is happening in both Houses of Congress, according to the initially referenced Fox News story:

“We are in conversations, as you know, with the parliamentarian about the best way to get budget reconciliation we’re trying to help across the finish line,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.

House conservatives are aiming to implement especially steep spending cuts in the tax cut package. But those special Senate budget rules make it hard for GOP senators to go as deep as the House would like. Some on the right are mystified about the role of the Senate parliamentarian.

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“It is an unusual thing that one unelected official has so much authority,” said Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo.

“The parliamentarian. Who is she? Who elected her? I don’t know,” mused House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Tex. “Where is it in the Constitution?”

Well, Article I, Section 5 to be precise. That provision grants the House and Senate the right to create their own rules and standards of operation. The parliamentarian plays a key role in the budget reconciliation process — the mechanism Republicans are using to advance their tax cut and spending reduction bill.

More than a handful of House Republicans say they oppose the Senate’s latest framework. The House and Senate must approve the same blueprint in order to actually do the bill itself. That’s key because the Senate needs a unified framework in place to use the budget reconciliation process to avoid a filibuster. And MacDonough’s rulings on whether various provisions fit into this bill — in compliance with the Budget Act — could have sway. Budget rules do not allow the legislation to add to the deficit over a 10-year window.

There are a lot of players whom you will hear about in the next months as Republicans try to finish the bill. Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Tex. All are key players as Republicans continue on this trek.

It is often said in officiating that good referees are invisible. The ones you don’t notice.

But with so much at stake, it will be hard for Republicans to avoid noticing the calls by the parliamentarian.

But the thing President Trump is touting as much as anything else — the comprehensive nature of this bill in that it COMBINES a spending bill with CUTS (though not mentioned in the bill) — is being argued by Democrats to be an underhanded sidestep of Senate rules.

Here’s President Trump excitedly announcing a $1 Trillion Defense budget as part of the bill:

As President Trump stated, that would be the largest single military spending package in history.

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But there are also immigration issues included in the bill, which as history has proven, could turn the entire thing sour for that powerful Senate Parliamentarian.

Big policy changes coupled with spending bills is sketchy territory, according to Senate rules.  MacDonough has already proven she’s not willing to bend those rules, even for her fellow Democrats.

It is very unlikely that if anything conflicting with Senate rules catches her attention that she would be willing to let it slide.

That’s not going to happen in this case, if she didn’t let it happen on Democrat issues like a minimum-wage hike, and a path for citizenship for Dreamers — as this news clip from a pro-Dreamer organization several years ago proves:

But again, even days ago when the Senate began its work on the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and created the current version for the House to mull over… there were problems.

Those focused on fiscal conservative principles, unwilling to trust President Trump’s more comprehensive approach in balancing out CUTS with funding his AMERICAN FIRST POLICY… weren’t swayed then, and they don’t seem to have changed their mind in the meantime.

Personally, I’m having a hard time going along with this ‘big’ bill, as well.

I get the argument President Trump and Speaker Johnson have made.  And if that plays out… it will be wonderful.

But if it doesn’t — and there is no guarantee that it can be done — Republicans will be responsible for a spending INCREASE that DWARFS the Covid spending era of Joe Biden.

I know, I know — I said it myself!  If we actually CUT the spending and take all the necessary action that President Trump is pushing… THIS WILL WORK OUT.

I get it.  Don’t crucify me — I am FOR President Trump’s agenda!

But this bill scares me… because the path to enact the parts of his agenda that will keep this from being JUST an enormous spending INCREASE… goes right through the Senate and the House.

There’s no other way.  And there’s no guarantee it is actually possible, once this spending bill is passed, to bring the cuts and savings in line with his full plan.

That appears to be the concern of most of those taking the fiscally conservative view that this is dangerous, as being reported by the Associated Press:

After a long wait, the Senate is launching action on President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” of tax breaks and spending cuts at a risky moment for the U.S. and global economy.

Trump says he’s on board with the plan and Republicans, in control of Congress, are eager to show the party is making progress toward delivering on their campaign promises. By nightfall, as voting began, one Republican, the libertarian-leaning Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, voted against, as did all Democrats.

Democrats, as the minority party, don’t have the votes to stop the GOP plan. But they intend to use the procedural tools available to prolong the process.

Fundamental to the Senate package is making sure Trump’s first-term tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the year, are continued and made a permanent fixture of the tax code. The senators also will consider adding Trump’s proposed tax cuts on tipped wages, Social Security income and others.

The Senate package also would bolster border security funds by some $175 billion to carry out Trump’s mass deportation campaign, which is running short of cash, and it would add national security funds for the Pentagon — all priorities the Senate GOP tucked into an earlier version that was panned by House Republicans.

Republican Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the party whip, said that without action tax cuts would expire, becoming a $4 trillion tax hike on Americans. “Republicans are focused on getting America back on track,” he said.

While House Republicans approved their package with $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and up to $2 trillion in spending cuts, the Senate Republicans are taking a different tack.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham is making the case that since the existing Trump tax breaks are the current policy, they are not considered new, and do not need to be offset with reductions in spending — an approach Democrats compare to “going nuclear” with the normal rules, particularly if the strategy is put to the test with an unfavorable ruling before the Senate parliamentarian.

The House and Senate will ultimately need to merge their frameworks into a final product, expected in May, but House Speaker Mike Johnson’s intention to have it all wrapped up by Memorial Day could prove optimistic.

At the same time, the staunchest fiscal conservatives in both the House and Senate, many aligned with the Freedom Caucus, are pushing for even more cuts.

Trump told senators publicly and privately this week he would have their backs, particularly when it comes to standing up for the spending reductions. At a White House announcing the tariffs Wednesday, Trump said the Senate plan had his “complete and total support.”

Like it or not, it seems as though President Trump’s team has identified one possible way forward that could end with his agenda triumphing, and the problems fixed.

And this is it.

I’ll give it to Rep. Jodey Arrington, Chairman of the House Budget Committee, for making the case.

He lays out the treacherous path forward very clearly in this clip, and points to both sides of the coin — the need to FUND the ‘America First’ agenda… and the simultaneous need to CUT SPENDING from other places:

Speaker Johnson likewise gave his best shot at explaining the hurdles before the House and the Senate on Saturday, when the Senate passed its’ version:

Here’s the full text of his explanatory post:

Today, the Senate passed its version of the budget resolution, and is sending it to the House for consideration.

Getting the two chambers together will allow us to finally begin the most important phase of this process: drafting the reconciliation bill that will deliver on President Trump’s agenda and our promises to the American people.

There are several key things to remember as we move forward:

The budget resolution is not the law itself, but only the necessary kickoff for reconciliation to begin.

The Senate amendment as passed makes NO CHANGES to the House reconciliation instructions that we passed weeks ago. Although the Senate chose to take a different approach on its instructions, the amended resolution in NO WAY prevents us from achieving our goals in the final reconciliation bill.

We have and will continue to make it clear in all discussions with the Senate and the White House that—in order to secure House passage—the final reconciliation bill must include historic spending reductions while protecting essential programs.

After close consultation with President Trump and Majority Leader Thune, we all agree that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” must be drafted using a collaborative process that results in a single product that can be passed by both chambers and signed into law. We have made it clear the House will NOT accept nor participate in an “us versus them” process resulting in a take-it-or-leave-it proposition from the Senate.

As soon as we pass the final budget resolution, our House and Senate committees will begin preparing together their respective titles of the reconciliation bill to be marked up in the next work period. As always, this will involve input from all Members and will keep us on track to send a bill to the President’s desk by Memorial Day.

Time is of the essence.

The Speaker went on Fox News today, making the same case:

I want to believe.

And if I were a sitting Congressman in the House of Representatives, I would be pushing my fellow fiscal conservatives to FIND A WAY to sign on to the President’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.

But it remains to be seen — whether through the disarray of Republicans or some intrigue on the part of the Senate Parliamentarian — if this bill will simply dissolve in the chaos of the Republicans in the House.

Tomorrow is the big day for the House.  The ball is in their court.

No matter what happens, this won’t likely be wrapped up and signed into law until sometime in May.

But tomorrow is going to be a rubber-meets-the-road moment for House Republicans and the Trump Administration’s biggest endeavor yet, to see if the President’s agenda can survive the halls of Congress.

If the day ends in more disarray, that’s not going to bode well for the coming weeks of deal making in Congress.

But if the Republicans can somehow find common ground, and keep an eye on the likely issues being watched by the Senate Parliamentarian…

That ‘BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL’ might just start to see light at the end of the tunnel.


 

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