Despite the media’s consistent fawning over Kamala Harris, the American people are increasingly revealing that they aren’t all that interested in electing her to be the next President.
In fact, one of the nation’s most respected pollsters recently updated his projections to show that President Donald Trump is in a prime position to secure a second term in the White House.
According to Fox News:
Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, “The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote.
Silver’s nuanced election forecast model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris’ odds, meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.
He also noted that Harris seemingly didn’t benefit from a Democratic National Convention bounce as much as election models had predicted.
Of course, Silver is not the only person forecasting a likely Trump victory in November despite ongoing efforts in the media to prop up the Harris-Walz ticket.
🚨🇺🇸NEW POLLS SHOW TRUMP LEADING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES
Fresh Polls by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage from seven battleground states suggest Trump could win the election with 296 electoral votes:
– Michigan: Trump leads 47% to 46.6%.
– Pennsylvania: Trump ahead 47% to… pic.twitter.com/demECWbKLM
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 3, 2024
But there are some notable exceptions:
NEW: Allan Lichtman, who claims to have predicted every election since 1984, predicts Kamala Harris will win the election.
Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of 10 recent elections except for 2000. He also incorrectly predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016.
Lichtman… pic.twitter.com/BitUgoJqte
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 5, 2024
Silver went into greater detail regarding how he arrived at his most recent forecast:
There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.https://t.co/SPS1OGKNw2
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2024
As the New York Post reported:
The pollster also argued that Harris tapping Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over swing-state Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shaprio, as well as keeping most of President Biden’s campaign team in place, may have been missteps.
“Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he continued.
In a separate tweet, Silver said, “I think I’d buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she hadn’t rehired so many of the Biden people.”
Overall Silver’s model still pegs the race as a “toss-up” between the two candidates.
Here’s some additional recent insight from Silver:
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