There is no such thing as a ‘soft landing’—there is simply the constant inflation of fiat money that surges and then stabilizes relative to the most recent inflationary bubble.
This is why a loaf of bread will never again be 10 cents—the U.S. dollar has lost 94% of its value since 1954 and it’s never going back.
I cannot stress this enough, but there is absolutely nothing the state can do to fix the economic problems this country now faces—the system has terminal cancer.
As a matter of fact, the economic problems America now faces are not new or unique—they are par for the course.
A country is born, it rises, and for a while, it is honest, productive, and provides for the citizenry with the best interests of the citizenry in mind.
Once the country becomes sufficiently wealthy, the decadence, excessive spending, and poor monetary policies slowly take hold and the nation in question begins a slow decline to the bottom fueled by debt spending and artificially inflated paper money.
The jobs reports don’t matter, the economic ‘data’ doesn’t matter, even bull markets don’t matter.
If the nation—any nation, is built upon a foundation of fiat money, then the nation will suffer the same economic collapse that has inflicted every single fiat currency that has ever come into existence—there are exactly zero exceptions to this rule.
Historically, every single paper currency issued by a government has been sufficiently devalued and eventually goes to zero—it is then that a new currency is issued.
Propagandists for the Biden administration and the broader American establishment want to fill the people’s heads with nonsense, hopium, and the short-term headlines of relatively short boom and bust cycles.
To be sure, the Biden administration is lying about the state of the economy but even if they weren’t their points are moot.
It doesn’t matter how many jobs are added in a single month or how high the stock market goes if it is all based on pretend, make-believe money.
Famed economist Mohemed El-Erian recently voiced his concerns that a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy is increasingly less likely, and a 2024 recession is becoming harder and harder to avoid.
El-Erian provided a link to a recent article he penned in Financial Times and warned Americans:
“Given also what is happening to other drivers of economic growth, here is why I worry that both the nature and magnitude of the recent surge in yields will make it harder for the US to avoid a recession in 2024 — this after the inherent strength of the domestic economy impressively overcame all sorts of headwinds to growth in 2023.”
Posted earlier today:
Given also what is happening to other drivers of economic growth, here is why I worry that both the nature and magnitude of the recent surge in yields will make it harder for the US to avoid a recession in 2024 — this after the inherent strength of the…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) October 6, 2023
El-Erian argued: “This historical WSJ chart on US jobless claims is a reminder of the unusual labor market. As I’ve been arguing for over a year, this is one of the big four factors underpinning the shift in the economic paradigm from a world of insufficient aggregate demand to one where supply is not flexible enough.
Absent a policy mistake(s) that pushes the economy into a costly recession, this change in paradigm is consistent with the market’s ongoing recognition of a “high for longer” rate regime. It also necessitates, as argued in today’s
Financial Times [article] a more open monetary policy mindset.”
This historical @WSJ chart on US jobless claims is a reminder of the unusual labor market.
As I’ve been arguing for over a year, this is one of the big four factors underpinning the shift in the economic paradigm from a world of insufficient aggregate demand to one where supply… pic.twitter.com/ywjrGYMrai— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) October 6, 2023
He went on: “The good news for the economy from this jobs report will be seen by many as constituting bad news for markets and monetary policy:
The BIG upside surprise in job creation (336,000 versus the consensus estimate of 170,000), and with such widespread gains, will lead to a selloff in both stocks and bonds — especially as labor force participation did not tick up in any meaningful way and despite broadly in line earnings.
Given how often the Federal Reserve has stressed that it is “data dependent,” this will put a hike back on the table for markets on November 1.”
The good news for the #economy from this jobs report will be seen by many as constituting bad news for markets and monetary policy:
The BIG upside surprise in job creation (336,000 versus the consensus estimate of 170,000), and with such widespread gains, will lead to a selloff… https://t.co/wJOr7B5sfm— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) October 6, 2023
Fox Business provided this concerning outlook:
The latest economic data shows the annual M2 money supply growth rate has been negative for the past three quarters, meaning the amount of money available is shrinking rapidly.
In the past 110 years, the only other time Americans have seen the money supply drop this sharply was in the early 1930s, during the height of the Great Depression.
There is a significant difference this time around, however. In the ’30s, when the money supply annual rate turned negative, prices dropped as well.
In our current situation, prices are still going up despite the collapse in the money supply. To the extent we’re seeing it today, this has never occurred before.
As Bloomberg TV reports, El-Erian has been making this prediction for several months now. The financial outlet writes: “Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, says the pathway to an economic soft landing is “not very likely.”
Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, says the pathway to an economic soft landing is "not very likely."
He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on “Bloomberg The Open” https://t.co/R8wq3af6mu pic.twitter.com/ly9qJQ8501
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 22, 2022
Earlier this week, The Hill featured this piece titled “6 Reasons a Recession Is In The Cards Soon”:
Last month, Yellen, now the Treasury Department secretary, said she is “feeling very good” about the U.S. making a soft economic landing without a recession.
As for why economists often do not anticipate recessions, Bloomberg pointed to the nonlinear nature of recessions that contradict peoples’ usual predictions that similar trends naturally will continue.
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