President Trump Confirmed DOGE DIVIDEND, Numbers Starting To Circulate On How Much

Earlier today I brought you this report:

DOGE DIVIDEND: Here Come The DOGE Stimmy Checks!

And things are moving fast because President Trump just confirmed he's indeed considering it and working on the details.

Take a look here:

President Trump teases “new concept” of giving 20% of DOGE savings back to American taxpayers. 🔥🔥

As long as the goal remains balancing the budget, I love it. pic.twitter.com/eSqHwUyx2W

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) February 19, 2025

The NY Post reports that checks could be as high as $5,000 per taxpayer:

President Trump said Wednesday that he’s considering returning 20% of the savings from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative directly to taxpayers — potentially putting thousands of dollars in the pockets of Americans struggling under record inflation.

“There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt,” Trump said in a Miami Beach speech to a nonprofit funded by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

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“The numbers are incredible, Elon, so many billions — hundreds of billions — and we’re thinking about giving 20% back to the American citizens.”

Trump floated the potential refund after Musk tweeted Tuesday that he would “check with the President,” in response to a post from investor James Fishback, who has been advocating the concept.

It’s unclear precisely how much DOGE has saved to date, but Musk has stated a goal of $1 trillion in annual cost cuts as his 100-person team blazes through the federal bureaucracy, effectively closing some agencies, mass-firing employees at others and canceling contracts deemed wasteful.

Musk’s initiative has halted operations at the $50 billion-a-year USAID foreign aid agency and started the process of dismissing most of its 10,000 employees while beginning to dismantle the 1,700-person Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which has $712 million in funds whose fate is in limbo.

On Friday, DOGE said that it discovered $1.9 billion in “misplaced” and unneeded Department of Housing and Urban Development funds and canceled $373 million in Education Department grants for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) training sessions.

Also last week, the initiative scrapped $900 million in Education Department grants for tracking academic progress — and put the Pentagon’s vast discretionary spending in the crosshairs.

Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of X, says he plans to lead the fiscal overhaul for about four months.

Fishback, the advocate of a DOGE dividend, argues that $2 trillion in savings over two years would amount to roughly $25,000 per taxpayer. The proposed 20% dividend would then amount to $5,000 per taxpayer.

I thought this video was also a brief but excellent breakdown, explaining how $5,000 is likely the high end, but could potentially be much lower:

FULL TRANSCRIPT:

quick heads up as I was recording this video, another piece of news just broke.
Apparently now the IRS is expected to cut 6,000 jobs and announce those 6,000 job cuts tomorrow.
Now it's a far cry from the 80,000 they added, but it looks like now the IRS is also getting axed.
But let's talk about this stimulus that Donald Trump is now confirming—let's talk.

Alright, Donald Trump was just talking about how close we are to World War III, saying we're not too far away from it.
This is part of his motivation to tell Americans that he's doing his best to negotiate for all of us and that he's not doing things for political reasons.
He's doing things that he believes are the right things to do, and along with that came the acknowledgment about the Doge dividend checks, tax refunds, debt payoff, and potential stimulus funding.
Now, Donald Trump did echo that Doge so far in its first 30 days has slashed about $55 billion in what he also agrees is unnecessary government spending.

And, of course, a lot of people are very happy to see some efficiency come to government spending because, well, I think we all have very similar opinions on government's spending.
That said, there are arguments still being made—just like we talked about this morning—about that $55 billion, because there are only about $16 billion of cuts listed on the Doge savings website.
So, with that said, what I'd like to do is go through and just do a quick little calculation here.
Because if we look at $55 billion in spending—or, I should say, savings—Donald Trump just gave us a metric in terms of how much we might expect, in his opinion, would be reasonable to go towards stimulus or money back to the people.

His argument is that you should do 60% less government spending going forward, 20% existing debt payoff, and 20% stimulus or Doge dividends, potentially in the form of either tax refunds or something for taxing households that are taxed.
This has already led the treasury market to see a little bit of a bounce because anything that indicates that the debt might actually get paid down—even in the face of higher inflation levels—has led the treasury market to move up slightly.
So, if you're looking at ETFs like TLT, you've seen it come off the bottom partly because of Doge.
If you're invested in TLT, you kind of have to think about Doge a little bit for that.

Let's just do the quick math here: if we've got $55 billion and we take 20% of that, we'd be looking at about $11 billion just from the first 30 days in government savings that could be distributed.
That would be 20% to debt payoff—so $1 billion for debt payoff—and then potentially $11 billion in the form of distribution to the approximately, let's go with a midpoint here because people say they're about 79 to 90 million taxpaying households.
It sort of depends on how you define a taxpaying household; anyway, if we just divide by 85 to go with the middle range there, that would work out to, in the first 30 days, a $129 essentially Doge dividend.
Kind of think about it as like maybe a monthly passive income thing if Doge could continue to cut $55 billion from this point on.

Now, if we use what the legacy media is reporting and use $16.6 billion—mind you, where they came up with that number is they just went through the Doge website and added up the numbers that are listed there, the receipts that are listed there—if we use 16.6 instead as a number for the potential savings that Doge has conducted, that would only work out to $39.
However, this is for the first 30 days.
So, if we annualize this and say, "Hey, you know, how much could we potentially save in a year?" and multiply that by 12 on the lower number, that works out to close to a $469 stimulus check.
I'm not making that number up either—that's 16.6 billion divided by 85 million, which comes out to 469.

And again, if we go with the $555 figure, it puts us at about $1,567, and that is—sorry—not 12% but 20% of that; it's just the annual figure, right?
So this assumes that if we can keep saving the way we have been for the first 30 days—and that this is not low-hanging fruit that we can continue to save like this as we dig deeper into different agencies—it really assumes this potential using Trump's numbers for the entire year of about a $1,500 stimulus check.
If we use the media's numbers, based on cuts for the first 30 days, we're closer to $469 for the year.
Now, again, some people are suggesting this number should be all the way as high as $5,000, and this is really taking the idea that Doge ends up being able to go all the way cutting $2 trillion.

If they cut $2 trillion, then potentially we end up seeing the full $5,000—using again a 20% ratio.
So, if I take, let's see here, if we take $2 trillion over the entire period of time, then 20% of that divided by 85 million households looks at $475 to be exact; that's where that number comes from.
What's fascinating though is we've now seen how these ideas percolate to Donald Trump.
Some opinion gets popularity on X, or somebody's suggestion gets opinion popularity on X, Elon Musk ends up seeing it, and then Elon Musk says, "Hey, you know what? I'm going to talk to the president about this."

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This is very interesting, and then Donald Trump, in a conference—or some form of presentation—where he's just wrapping up, right there, he's just wrapping that one up.
I've been watching it for quite a while.
Here, within 24 hours of Elon Musk saying, "We'll talk to the president about this," Donald Trump is here giving a presentation and including this 20% Doge dividend ratio.
In other words, I want to simplify this and kind of give everybody encouragement over what Doge is doing.

Whatever the real number is that Doge is cutting, multiply it by 20% and divide it by 85 million—that's your potential Doge dividend.
So the more they cut, the better.
Again, if we're looking at this downside risk that potentially the low-hanging fruit was cut early and now we're not seeing as many cuts as we're hoping because maybe it gets harder to start cutting more or more problems come up as a result of those cuts, then in that case we're probably going to end up having to look and say, "Alright, you know, maybe it'll work out to like a $40 cut per month or $40 dividend per month," which is still like $500 a year, right?
But is that better received, or is that better for the economy in the form of a tax deduction or lower taxes, basically? We'll see.

But again, breaking news: Donald Trump acknowledging this shows you again how this information percolates up to Elon Musk, and I thought it was quite fascinating, so I wanted to share it with you all.
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We also will be coming out with some analysis on what's going on with some stocks like Paler and others later today.

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