I never thought I’d be doing daily FAA plane crash articles, deconstructing why a crash happened, but here we go again….
And quite frankly, I hope I can stop doing these very soon, because this is not the type of news I want to cover on a regular basis.
Just yesterday we bought you these reports:
BREAKING: Fiery Explosion After Small Plane Crashes Into Philadelphia Neighborhood
Now today I want to talk about what might have caused this.
The initial reaction I had and perhaps you had was how many of these crashes need to happen before we ask if something larger and more nefarious is going on here?
Remember a few years ago when that barge crashed into the bridge, and then after never in my entire life seeing a barge destroy an entire bridge then copy cat incidents happened shortly thereafter?
It feels like history is repeating itself with these plane crashes.
In fact, it was only 3 days ago that this happened:
JUST IN: F-35 Fighter Jet Crashes Into Huge Fireball [VIDEO]
Most people have forgotten that, but that happened only one day before the American Airlines / Blackhawk Helicopter crash.
Then we had the American Airlines horrific crash.
Now this Philadelphia Learjet crash.
So, just three random accidents?
Perhaps so.
Two days ago, I brought you this excellent analysis of the American Airlines crash from my friend Kevin "MeetKevin" Paffrath.
Kevin is a pilot and he brought some really great insight into how this crash likely occurred.
If you haven't seen that yet, you might find it fascinating:
NEW ANSWERS: Why American Air Flight 5342 CRASHED into Helicopter
And now I want to go back to Kevin for his analysis of this Learjet crash.
Is there an explanation here as well?
It looks like maybe so.
Go ahead and watch right here, or scroll down if you'd rather just read the transcript:
FULL TRANSCRIPT:
MeetKevin:
A devastating accident just occurred in Philadelphia, where a flight was destined to pick up a young girl under 18 years old who had just received life-saving treatment.
Unfortunately, as her plane prepared for takeoff to return her home to Tijuana, Mexico, the plane crashed.
In this video, just a few hours after the accident, we're going to try to piece together how it's possible that a Learjet 55 crashed almost like a missile, killing everyone on board and potentially some on the ground.
This is a devastating occurrence. It is terrible to see this event happen, and I feel so terrible for everyone who lost loved ones.
I want to say—I’m Meet Kevin. I'm a pilot. While I'm a newer pilot, I want to be clear: my goal every single day is to learn from any incident that occurs and share my experiences in my pilot journey.
You can see more on my channel about that, but for now, we’ve got to look at ATC communications and the trajectory this plane was supposed to be on versus what may have actually happened.
Because what the plane was told to do is not what the plane did—or should I say, the pilots.
So let’s try to piece together what happened here.
What I’d like to do first is start with the air traffic control instructions. Then, I’m going to compare those instructions to what actually happened.
Take a look here.
This is the air traffic control communication recording.
Now, it sounds like you only get the tower frequency here, so you're not actually going to hear the pilots until they switch to the tower frequency. I’ll explain that in a moment.
But let’s start with what the initial instructions were and then look at what they actually did.
[Air Traffic Control Recording:]
"Medac Med Service 056, on departure turn right heading two-niner-zero. Runway 24 cleared for takeoff. Wind two-five-zero at one-zero."
First things first, the winds are 250 at 10 knots.
This means they have almost a perfect headwind.
For a Learjet, 10 knots of wind at a 10-degree offset is essentially a nonissue.
There was no mention of gusting winds, so I don’t think winds were an issue here.
It was a rainy night, with low cloud coverage, and I think that may end up playing a factor here.
Now, keep in mind, they were just cleared for takeoff from Runway 24.
They were instructed that after reaching the end of the runway, they should initiate a right turn heading two-niner-zero.
Did the plane follow that instruction?
Well, you’re going to see.
First, let’s look at ForeFlight, which shows an overview of Runway 24.
Here is Runway 24 at Northeast Philadelphia Airport.
If we draw an extending ruler from the centerline of the runway, you can see it lines up perfectly with 240 degrees.
Now, why does that matter?
Because if I extend a straight runway heading at 240 degrees, look at where it intersects with the freeway.
It intersects right about where these trees are—at a straight heading.
Notice this area right here, where the bend is in the freeway and approximately where those trees sit.
This will be very important, so keep this in mind.
But first, I want you to see what a 290-degree heading actually looks like.
290 degrees off of takeoff would have looked something like this.
This heading is set for 290.
If you took off—let’s go ahead and use a different color here just so we can see this a little more clearly—we’ll go with a green, thicker line.
If you made it to the end of the runway, you would have been expected to start your turn at the end of the runway and head two-niner-zero.
But that’s not what happened here.
If they had continued straight, you would expect that the plane would intersect right about here, where this green circle is.
Now, let’s take a look at the publicly available tracking data for tail number XA-UCJ.
Keep in mind, when a tail number starts with November, it's usually a U.S. registration.
When it starts with "X-ray Alpha," it’s generally a Mexican registration—which this indeed was.
In fact, all the passengers on board this medical transport flight were on a sponsored mission.
In other words, the life-saving treatment was sponsored.
This was sort of like a Make-A-Wish or charity flight.
The FAA has confirmed that six people were on board: a mother, the daughter who received the treatment, two pilots, and two crew members.
It’s expected that all of them lost their lives as the crash impacted near a mall in Philadelphia.
Now, let’s take a look at that publicly available flight data.
Here’s what we have.
You can see here is the runway.
When we extend from this runway, what do you notice?
The plane is right there, where the trees are—at the bend in the highway.
It’s actually on a track of 240 degrees.
Now, this doesn’t tell us the direction of the nose at the time, but it does tell us that the plane itself was moving at a direction of about 240 degrees—roughly runway heading.
This means they had not yet started their right turn.
And they were already at 1,300 feet.
At this point, the aircraft had climbed about 1,200 feet.
We know this because the airport elevation on ForeFlight is listed at 120 feet.
So, after climbing about 1,200 feet, the plane still hadn’t started its turn.
That’s odd.
And given that in the air traffic control comms, we hear the controller say "Turn right heading two-niner-zero," and then again, "Affirm, turn right heading two-niner-zero"—
The fact that the controller said it twice makes me wonder—
Were the pilots distracted in the cockpit?
Now, it doesn’t sound like there’s a lot of stress in the recording.
So, let’s go ahead and play the rest of what we have here.
This is an edited-together version of what the tower frequency hears.
I’ll play it again from the beginning and interrupt just to say when I think pieces have been cut out.
[Air Traffic Control Recording:]
"Medac Med Service 056, on departure turn right heading two-niner-zero. Runway 24 cleared for takeoff. Wind two-five-zero at one-zero."
"Medac Med Service 056, affirmative. On departure, turn right heading two-niner-zero. Runway 24 cleared for takeoff."
Now, you might wonder—why didn’t you hear the pilots respond?
Well, in my opinion, you didn’t hear the pilots because they were likely transmitting on the ground frequency.
And I believe that this recording is only of the tower frequency—not also of the ground frequency.
So, you can hear the tower talking to both sides, but you can’t hear what they’re saying on the ground.
We don’t get the pilots’ voices until they’re airborne and asked to switch from the tower frequency to the departure frequency.
Which we’ll hear in just a moment.
"Medac Med Service 056, contact departure 23.85."
"23.85. Thank you. Good day."
"Medac Med Service 056, Northeast Tower. Contact Philly 23.8."
"23.8."
They’re saying this because they’re asking the pilots to switch over to another frequency.
Now, initially, when we heard the pilot, it didn’t sound like there was any particular distress in the cockpit.
In my opinion, the pilots may not have been in distress at the time they switched frequencies.
In fact, I think what’s about to happen occurred very suddenly to them.
I’ll explain my impression, but let’s keep listening.
"Medac Med Service 056, Northeast Tower."
"Medac Med Service 056, Northeast Tower, you on frequency?"
"Medac Med Service 056, Northeast Tower, how do you hear this transmission?"
At this point, it’s likely that they had already switched frequencies.
They were communicating on the other frequency and were no longer with the tower.
Unfortunately, the accident takes place at this moment.
Now, what else can we glean from the publicly available data?
When we look at the rest of the flight data, we can see that the plane never enters its right turn—ever.
All we can see is that at 11:06 UTC, the plane is still heading in the runway direction at 1,300 feet above elevation.
They haven’t even begun their right turn.
Now, the METAR at this moment, a couple of hours after the accident, indicates broken clouds at 700 feet.
It’s possible that, right as they entered this 1,300-foot altitude, they became disoriented in the clouds.
This can happen even to experienced, instrument-rated pilots—
Especially if they’re not familiar with the airport, the area, or the weather conditions.
And at this point, we already know they’ve forgotten to turn right.
They might have been overwhelmed, possibly dealing with a passenger issue in the back, or distracted by conversation in the cockpit, breaking the sterile cockpit rule.
Unfortunately, we’re unlikely to ever know exactly what happened inside the cockpit, because it’s unlikely that this small jet had a cockpit voice recorder or flight data recorder.
However, I can tell you that when you enter clouds—even as an instrument-rated pilot—it can take a moment to adjust.
Yesterday, I was flying a multi-engine plane, and the feeling of transitioning from being able to see the horizon to suddenly looking at a wall of clouds—where the clouds are the same color as the water beneath you—is intense.
It was such an overcast day that everything looked like I was staring into a seamless background on a studio set.
There was no visible horizon anymore.
It takes a moment to adjust:
Look down at your instruments— Check your altitude— Monitor your airspeed— Verify your heading.
We already know they lost track of their heading because they never initiated their turn.
The only thing left for them to do wrong at this point—
Was to accidentally pitch the nose up too high.
Especially if the plane was rear-heavy.
Now, when people hear the word jet, they often assume that jets are extremely powerful.
But as a jet owner myself—
I own a Phenom 300E, which is slightly smaller than the Learjet 55—
I can tell you that the loading weight of these jets is not as much as you might think.
Especially if they were fully fueled.
Since they were flying from Philadelphia to Tijuana, Mexico, against the jet stream—
They were probably trying to make the trip without stopping.
So, it’s highly likely they filled the jet to the brim with fuel.
A fully fueled Learjet would have a useful load of about 1,800 to 2,200 pounds.
That’s not a lot if you have six people on board.
Let’s estimate the weight:
- Six people on board, assuming an average weight of 200 pounds each → 1,200 pounds
- Medical equipment and IV supplies
- Oxygen tanks (which were seen in the debris field)
- Luggage, personal belongings, possibly gifts
All of this adds up quickly.
So, if this plane was fully fueled and carrying all of this weight, there’s a high likelihood that as the pilots entered the clouds, the plane was rear-heavy.
If they pitched the nose up too high, even by just a little—
The plane could have entered a stall before they even realized it.
And if they stalled, it could have been a deadly spin.
Now, I’m still advancing in my flight training, so I want to be clear that this is just my opinion based on the data.
But looking at this information—this is exactly the kind of situation we are trained to avoid.
The best stall is no stall.
Let’s analyze the data and see if it corroborates this theory.
We’re at 1,300 feet with a ground speed of 187 knots and a vertical speed of 3,000 feet per minute.
That’s fast, but acceptable for a Learjet.
Now, the very next ping we have shows that their vertical speed dropped to 1,472 feet per minute.
That’s interesting because they sped up by 11 knots while their vertical speed dropped.
That would suggest that they pointed the nose down slightly.
But just 2 seconds later, their vertical speed drops again to 448 feet per minute.
Then, within the next 5 seconds, they go from climbing 448 feet per minute to falling at 2,800 feet per minute.
In 20 seconds, they went from climbing at 3,000 feet per minute—
To falling at 2,800 feet per minute.
That is not typical of an engine failure.
Engine failures in jets are extremely rare— One every 240,000 flight hours for a turbine engine.
Multi-engine pilots are trained to handle engine failures—even on takeoff.
It’s difficult, but it’s a solvable issue.
I think these pilots got into the clouds, became disoriented, and—
While possibly discussing their heading or adjusting something in the cockpit—
They pitched the nose up too much.
They exceeded the critical angle of attack, and the plane stalled.
Now, I want to be clear—this is not confirmed.
It may be a long time before we get all the answers.
But when we look at the ADS-B flight data, there’s no sign of a right turn—only a left-turn stall.
And the footage we’ve seen of the crash matches a stall spin scenario.
It’s devastating to see a medical transport plane with a pediatric patient crash.
And some of the footage from the scene is just heartbreaking.
Now, my goal in reviewing this data is not just to analyze what went wrong—
But to learn from it.
Aviation accidents can go from "everything is fine" to disaster in seconds.
I study aviation daily.
And seeing cases like this breaks my heart.
But every accident has lessons to be learned.
I encourage all pilots to always:
- Pre-plan their takeoff instructions
- Pre-set their autopilot before takeoff
- Mentally rehearse their heading and climb rate
- Never take off in high-stress situations in unfamiliar terrain
This tragedy is a harsh reminder of how unforgiving aviation can be.
Thank you so much for watching, and I’ll see you in the next one.
RELATED REPORT:
Planes, Trains and Shipping Vessels -- What Comes Next?
Plains, Trains and Automobiles was a hilarious movie. Maybe Top 20 comedy of all time, especially since Hollywood has been incapable of writing comedies for about 10+ years now and doesn't appear able to recover anytime in the foreseeable future.
But Plains, Trains and Shipping Vessel derailments? Not so funny.
Two things happened yesterday that caused me to consider this topic and write this article.
First, someone mentioned to me how it seems like there has been a huge increase of tragic events under the Biden Regime (remember all the train derailments? Now planes falling apart every day. Now capped off by a Shipping Vessel taking out an entire key bridge).
But don't worry, this guy is on the case and going to fix it all real soon:
Of course we covered all of those on a daily basis, but stepping back to view the forrest from the trees, it was stunning to really think about.
Then they asked me the question: what do you think happens next? Between now and the election. Do you think it gets better or worse?
Neither of us really needed to answer that question because we both knew.
The second thing was I ran across the meme posted above.
Sometimes a picture truly is worth 1,000 words.
I don't recall much, if any, of this crap happening under Donald Trump's watch.
Oh we had some mean Tweets, but the world was mostly at piece and under control.
Now?
Well, I thought it might be good to turn to the actual data and take a walk down memory lane.
This is by no means a comprehensive list, that would take far too long, but here is just some of what we've endured over the pat 4 years of the Biden Regime.
How much of this must happen before it becomes "not a coincidence"?
I don't know, but see how far you can stick with me as we walk down memory lane....
Of course probably the most notable and tragic derailment was in Palestine, OH.
I'm sure you all remember this:
Oklahoma:
Nebraska:
JUST IN: Another Train Derailment! Hazmat Team Called to Nebraska
Ohio (again):
Minnesota:
BREAKING: Derailed Train in Minnesota Catches Fire, Causes Immediate Evacuation
BREAKING: Train Hauling Hazardous Materials Derails in North Dakota
Washington:
5,000 Gallons of Diesel Spills After Train Derails in Washington
West Virginia:
Train Derails In West Virginia! Multiple Injuries, Fuel Tank Plunges Into River
Kansas:
Pennsylvania:
PENNSYLVANIA: 18-Inch Pipe Bomb Reportedly Found on Train Tracks
Wow, right?
And that was just a SMALL sample, I stopped before it got unreasonably long.
And that was just trains.
I probably don't need to remind you too much about all the airplane incidents recently....planes literally falling apart during takeoff, midflight and during landing.
Here are just a few:
NYC-Bound Plane Forced To Land After Fire Breaks Out “Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!”
SHOCKING Footage Shows Atlas Air Plane On Fire Mid-Air, Makes Emergency Landing
TERRIFYING: Video Shows Boeing 737 Losing Section Of Plane In The Air
Anyone excited about flying the friendly skies these days?
Me either.
Then of course we have the infamous incident from yesterday which was horrific:
MUST SEE: Bridge Crash Video Sped Up To 8x Shows A Very Different Picture
And I saved perhaps the best (worst) for last.
Don't forget about all of these:
STUNNING: Map Shows All Food Processing Plants That Have Burned Down, Blown Up or Been Destroyed Under Biden
Folks, this is truly stunning.
They are trying to destroy our food supply!
As someone who sits in this chair and covers the news each day, I see this firsthand.
Heck, we covered this one just this morning:
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