STUNNING: Democrats Drop To THIRD PLACE In Key Swing State Early Voting

Almost nothing has kept within the guardrails of “norms” or gone as expected in this wild election year.  In North Carolina, reeling from the tragedy of flooding and storm damage, oddities seem to be par for the course.

This morning the total vote count in North Carolina according to Michael Pruser with Decision Desk HQ was at 3.37 million — roughly 62% of the state’s expected electorate.  But it wasn’t the total vote count that is catching attention as much as the breakdown of the turnout  —  Republicans, Democrats, & “Others“.

North Carolina added 266,000 votes in this morning's report, bringing their total vote to 3.37 million. This represents roughly 62% of the expected electorate.

🔴Republicans – 1,148,634
🟡Others – 1,113,426
🔵Democrats – 1,106,358

In the spirit of Halloween, "The Others" led… pic.twitter.com/TTk66eCeDi

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 30, 2024

In a stunning statistical oddity, while the majority of N. Carolina polls have Trump and Kamala in a decidedly tight race, with President Trump holding a slight edge, the turnout breakdown is a likely lagging indicator of a crumbling Harris-Walz campaign (as is, just like as we reported yesterday, the sudden pulling of nearly $2 Million in North Carolina campaign ads).

⁦@KamalaHarris⁩ giving up on North Carolina..pulling money out. Maybe to drop in Virginia to try and stop the slide ? pic.twitter.com/oTcCAuTJYx

— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) October 29, 2024

But if you noticed in Michael Pruser’s tally, here’s the breakdown he gave of total registered voters who have cast their ballot so far in North Carolina:

1. Republicans – 1,148,634
2. Others – 1,113,426
3. Democrats – 1,106,358

That’s the breakdown of the 3.37 million total ballots cast so far in North Carolina.  Although Independents and Third-Party voters (“others”) make up a distinctive part of the electorate in North Carolina, the turnout has never reflected a severely challenged turnout for registered Democrats as compared to the registered “others”.

In a nutshell, besides registered Republicans, less registered Democrats have turned out to vote to day in North Carolina than those who fall under the category of “others” — constituted primarily by Independents and Third-Party voters.  That’s bad news for the Kamala-Walz campaign, which is why they might be pulling so much ad money.  And it seems there is more bad news piling up on top of the turnout issues.

According to NewsNation, their Decision Desk is now giving President Trump a 65% chance of winning North Carolina, compared with Kamala’s 35% odds as of today — and they are also showing that Trump has more momentum in the state.

North Carolina
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 30):

Trump: 65%
Harris: 35%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 30):

Trump: 48.7%
Harris: 47.6%
Who has the momentum?

Trump currently holds a 1.1-point polling advantage, a slight improvement from his 0.6-point lead a month ago, according to FiveThirtyEight.

And that brings me to another bit of bad news for Kamala Harris, and that is the shifting nature of the race overall, and which state is considered pivotal in relation to all the other state races.  According to Nate Silver, North Carolina is now the second most important “tipping point state” in this election, which Nate puts at 16% chance that the result in North Carolina tips the election one way or another.

According to Newsweek in a story focused on the ad money pulled by the Harris-Walz campaign from the N. Carolina market, the state is expected to decide the final outcome of the Presidential election along with the 6 classical “swing states”.

On Tuesday Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, shared media buying and analytics data which said the Harris had removed $1,721,302 of planned spending in the state, split between the “Charlotte, Greensboro, Greenville, Greenville-New Bern, Norfolk, Raleigh, and Wilmington markets.”

The claim was repeated by Breitbart, a conservative leaning outlet, which said the “more than $1.7 million in canceled ad buys by Harris’s campaign in North Carolina” indicate the “Tar Heel State is no longer in play.”

North Carolina is one of a number of key swing states which are widely expected to decide the 2024 presidential election outcome, along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. Losing North Carolina’s 16 Electoral College votes would be a blow to Harris, though Joe Biden won in 2020 despite Trump winning the state.

The danger for the Kamala-Walz campaign is that voting trends during early voting usually establish the pattern of nationwide voter tendencies, meaning this third-place showing in North Carolina could portend what many of us have expected — a possible landslide nationally for President Trump on par with the 1984 electoral sweep of Reagan.

That graphic from RealClearPolitics  from three days ago shows the danger that Kamala is in; and that was before the “others” of Independents and Third-Party voters overtook the registered democrats in overall voter turnout today.  Three days ago Kamala was literally behind nationally, and in every critical battleground state currently in play, as compared to Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, and no where near Biden’s (alleged) win in 2020.

Things aren’t looking good for the Harris-Walz campaign.  But from where I’m sitting… they’re looking better every day for the United States of America.  And short of some final “surprise” — which my eyes and ears are open for every single day — I don’t think Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have the intelligence, aptitude, or time left to pull a true win out of this catastrophe they call a campaign.  Good — so be it.