President Trump Gains Momentum in Final Stretch, Polls in Key States

“It’s neck-and-neck!”

“It’s a close race!”

We keep seeing these phrases in headlines but the rallies tell a different story.

They tell a story of the overwhelming majority on the side of President Trump.

But let’s look at the polls and see what they say.

With just days to go before the grand finale of the 2024 presidential circus, Nate Silver’s poll numbers show President Donald Trump around with a 55% chance of winning.

Trump’s projected to rake in 271 electoral votes—just enough to scrape by the magic number of 270.

#NEW – @NateSilver538 Forecast (10/28)

Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 55%
🟦 Harris: 45%

Electoral Votes
🟥 Trump: 271 🏆
🟦 Harris: 267
——
Swing States: win probability

Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 69-31%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina – 🔴… https://t.co/JZqNLh7rnJ pic.twitter.com/DcNN74OaHf

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 28, 2024

ABC News 538 reports:

A new poll from The New York Times/Siena College published today finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied at 48 percent each in the national popular vote, confirming a trend toward Trump that 538 identified last week. This and a few other new polls pushed Harris’s margin in our national average down from +1.7 to +1.5, less than the margin our model thinks is required for Harris to win the majority of Electoral College votes this year. Currently, our model gives Trump a 53 out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a 46 out of 100 chance.

Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing”in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.

Does any else feel like these polls aren’t telling the full story?

Today's update. Weird set of surveys today and it seems like pollsters are getting into the Halloween spirit. 🎃

At least not as much herding as usual.

Overall a good day for Trump based on polls in WI and NH.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/iumg0nc62b

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2024

“Neck-and-neck” eh?

They wouldn’t be trying to gaslight us, would they?