Internal GOP Polling Shows Disaster For Democrats In U.S. Senate Races

Could Republicans win a sizeable majority in the U.S. Senate?

According to internal GOP polling, Democrats’ hope of retaining the upper legislative chamber is becoming increasingly slim.

Polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) shows the GOP leading Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Wisconsin.

“Our latest polling shows Republican Tim Sheehy up 8 points over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester (50% – 42%),” an internal memo read.

“Our most recent NRSC polling shows Bernie Moreno leading Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown by 2 points (45%-43%),” it continued.

“The latest NRSC polling shows Hovde narrowly ahead of Baldwin 48% to 47% in a head-to-head matchup. This is the first time we have seen Hovde with the lead in our internal polling,” it added.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are toss-ups, while the gap appears to be closing in Arizona and Nevada.

“Recent Pennsylvania Senate polling shows a tight race, with Senator Casey holding a narrow 44% lead over McCormick at 43%,” the memo read.

“Our recent internal polling currently has Mike Rogers and Elisa Slotkin dead even in a head-to-head matchup (48%–48%),” it continued.

“The Nevada Senate race remains close despite Democrats spending over twice as much in this race as Republicans have. Sam Brown is down 5 points to incumbent Jacky Rosen, 43%-48%,” it noted.

“Our Senate polling has continued to show that it will be a tight race in Arizona. The race has not shifted since August as Kari Lake remains down 4 points on the ballot against Ruben Gallego at
45%-49%,” it added.

Senate polling for @NRSC (R)

Montana
Sheehy: 50%
Tester (inc): 42%
——
Ohio
Moreno: 45%
Brown (inc): 43%
——
Wisconsin
Hovde: 48%
Baldwin (inc): 47%

Full ballot – Tie 46-46%
——
AZ Senate
Gallego: 49%
Lake: 45%

AZ President
Trump: 49%
… pic.twitter.com/aJdY5vFdCb

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2024

“Republicans’ chances of winning a sizable Senate majority depend on the Rust Belt,” POLITICO noted.

Dueling GOP polling memos show Rust Belt is key in Senate fight https://t.co/CmjTUbxUaI

— POLITICO (@politico) October 15, 2024

From POLITICO:

But their internal numbers and public polling diverge in four places: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

All four states have had some tantalizingly competitive results that indicate they are firmly in the mix for the GOP. But just how competitive they are depends on whose polling is more accurate.

Republicans need to flip only two seats to secure a majority. West Virginia is a near-certain pickup and based on polling Montana looks likely to provide a second gain. The rest of the map will determine how big a GOP majority could be — and the recent polling flood suggests that the strongest place to pad the margin lies in the Rust Belt.

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All the NRSC’s polls were conducted in the last two weeks. They declined to comment on the memo, which was dated Oct. 13 and sent by Jason Thielman, the committee’s executive director.

“Internal polling of likely voters for the Rogers campaign has him down by one, according to a memo obtained by Axios.”

Basically what the NRSC and other non-partisan polls have shown. https://t.co/YetsYIot81

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) October 15, 2024

Per Axios:

The Senate Leadership Fund is dumping another $10.5 million in Michigan to bolster former Rep. Mike Rogers in his bid for Senate, Axios has learned.

All signs are pointing to the state becoming one of the most competitive in the battle to control both the Senate and the White House. If Michigan flips, Democrats will face a much steeper path to victory.

SLF, linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, only started going into Michigan this month, with a $22.5 million investment announced Sept. 30th.

They have focused their spending in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Review the full internal memo below: