Democrats Reportedly Panicking Over U.S. Senate Race In Battleground State, Much Closer Than What Public Polling Indicates

According to Axios, Democrats are increasingly worried about a tightening race for the U.S. Senate in battleground Wisconsin between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Republican challenger Eric Hovde.

“Baldwin leads by just two points in internal Democratic polling, a source familiar with the campaign told Axios,” the outlet reports.

Democrats are already on the cusp of potentially losing Senate seats in tight races in Ohio and Montana.

Losing Wisconsin would be a disaster for Democrats and almost a guarantee they lose the Senate.

Democratic fears emerge on Wisconsin Senate race https://t.co/eGj8OWPm4p

— Axios (@axios) October 4, 2024

Per Axios:

Democrats are on pace to be outspent by Republicans in the state every week until Election Day, with an infusion of around $20 million from GOP sources.

A Baldwin loss to Republican Eric Hovde would probably doom any chance Democrats have of holding on to their Senate majority.

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Montana’s trouble for Democrats. Ohio and Michigan are toss-ups.

But Wisconsin is supposed to be like Nevada and Arizona — a tight but safe-ish race, as long as nothing goes awry.

Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there are “alarm bells” ringing in the state, arguing the race is much tighter than what public polling has shown.

Report: Democrats are panicking about the Wisconsin Senate race. Supposedly Tammy Baldwin’s internals only have her up by 2 points against Republican Businessman Eric Hovde.

Via: Axios pic.twitter.com/Q7l0S6ZQP7

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 4, 2024

From The Guardian:

On the campaign trail, Baldwin has made stops at farms and in rural areas, launching a “Rural Leaders for Tammy” coalition to make her case in areas of the state that tend to lean red. Issues like healthcare access and hospital deserts and subsidies for farmers form core aspects of her platform. She has highlighted populist-leaning bills, like one she drafted with JD Vance, the Republican senator and vice-presidential candidate, to require goods and services developed with federal dollars in the US to be manufactured in the US. She has even taken up issues that are less popular with liberals, like removing gray wolves from Wisconsin’s endangered species list – a move supported by some farmers but criticized by environmental and conservation groups.

“She never shied away from going out into the countryside,” said Hans Breitenmoser, a dairy farmer from northern Wisconsin and a member of the Lincoln county Democratic party. “I think her message has resonated to an extent, because, you know, it’s not just all BS – she tries to understand the issues, and understands the issues at a level that some other politicians don’t.”

For Hovde to win the seat, he will have to erode that support and hope for high turnout outside heavily Democratic areas like Milwaukee and Dane county, which have generated historic voter turnout in recent elections.

Polling so far shows a close race, with Baldwin holding an approximately seven-point lead over Hovde, according to a poll conducted at the end of July by the Marquette University Law School. An earlier poll, conducted in June – before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race – showed Hovde trailing Baldwin more closely.

“In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the results are the same. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. Among registered voters, when initially asked, Baldwin receives 48% and Hovde 43%, with 10% saying they are undecided. Among likely voters, 9% are undecided, while Baldwin remains at 48% and Hovde remains at 43%,” Marquette University stated this week regarding a new survey.

However, a national Democratic strategist working on Senate campaigns said the race is much closer than the poll indicates.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at 100 Percent Fed Up.

View the original article here.