“BET” on TRUMP! Overnight Surge BAD NEWS for Kamala Campaign?

First, I have to show you this post by The Blaze.  Not only does it give you the gist of what just happened… but the picture of President Trump really nails the entire vibe for this story.

Betting markets lose faith in Kamala Harris after disappointing interview, Trump surges ahead https://t.co/CIpfD21YlG pic.twitter.com/4hrvGlrVAY

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) September 3, 2024

Now, let me set the scene with a literal scene, from the iconic 1993 movie “Tombstone”. The Earp brothers are standing out in the middle of main street when suddenly the “madcap”, Johnny Tyler, approaches — shotgun levelled at Wyatt.

Of course, you probably know the exact scene.  But yes, I will share a clip here for your viewing enjoyment; and to set the mood.

Wyatt Earp had just “acquired” a stake in a local gambling house, specifically the Faro card game.  (No, I’m not sharing every clip – you’ll just have to re-watch it now just like I will!)

Upon hearing the news, Doc quipped, “Oh… since when is Faro a business?”

Wyatt, a little surprised that his gambling friend suddenly sounds anti-gambling, asked him, “Didn’t you always say gambling’s an honest trade?”

To which Doc replied with all the correction of an old west school teacher — “No, I said poker’s an honest trade. Only suckers buck the tiger. The odds are all on the house.”

Honest or not — playing the odds is big business nowadays, just like back then.  It’s hard to imagine a greater “pot” to claim than that of the American Presidency.  But most folks who want a piece of the action can do so without ever having to throw their hat into a political ring.

And — the statistical analysis of those bets can prove very telling in an election year.

Last night, President Trump had what is being called an “overnight surge” in odds that say he’s more likely to win the whole “pot” come November, than Kamala.  Here’s the news from today in a nutshell:

Trump's lead grew to 4% overnight. pic.twitter.com/nZJZbaD3Uu

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 3, 2024

Keep in mind — those aren’t mere polling numbers.  Those numbers are directly related to people who are putting MONEY on who they think will win the Presidency in November; money they will lose if they’re wrong.  These numbers aren’t people who simply answered a pollster’s question.  These are people who dropped money on their prediction!

I don’t know about you, but when someone is willing to put money on the line, I take that seriously.

For more detail on what this means, let’s check out a story from Newsweek:

Donald Trump now has better odds of winning the 2024 presidential election than Vice President Kamala Harris, according to six leading bookmakers—with one telling Newsweek the Republican candidate had moved “marginally ahead” over the past 48 hours.

Trump was favored to win in November with Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet, though the two presidential candidates were tied with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.

Speaking to Newsweek, William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said: “The race for the U.S. presidency between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is a riveting one, and despite polls suggesting Harris has a slender 3-point lead, it’s Trump who is now marginally ahead in the betting.”

Phelps continued: “The Republican nominee has been tied with his presidential race rival for several weeks but has moved ahead in the last 48 hours, shortening into 4/5 from 10/11.

Across the board (corny game-pun intended) of online betting platforms, President Trump has suddenly surged to a significant lead over Kamala Harris.  But specifically on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction betting platform in the world, that overnight increase was substantial.

Check out this report on last night’s “surge” from Cryptonews.com :

The two candidates have been neck and neck in recent weeks.

Polymarket betters again favor Republican nominee Donald Trump over Democratic pick Kamala Harris in the prediction market’s official 2024 Election Forecast poll.

According to the formal tally as of Monday morning, Trump has garnered support from 51 percent of Polymarket voters, while Harris trails behind at 47 percent.

That’s a seriously big shift in a very short time.  I dug a little deeper to find out what exactly might be causing this shift, after the odds were basically tied for the previous few weeks.  From The Blaze news site, here’s a little insight into why the overnight “surge” happened:

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has dropped behind former President Donad Trump among betting markets after she underwhelmed in her first sit-down interview since seizing the nomination.

Harris was previously beating Trump by as many as 8.8 points in the RealClearPolicy average of presidential betting markets, but she has fallen slightly behind a week after the disappointing interview.

While Harris still remains slightly favored in the RCP presidential average, 48.1% to 46.2%, many poll experts believe Trump underperforms in polling, and historical trends show he overperforms on election day by about 2 percentage points.

In the immediate aftermath of that softball event loosely referred by some as an “interview” with Kamala & Co on CNN… things started to shift ever so slightly in the betting world:

Trump and Kamala were tied for who might win on Polymarket. After Kamala's interview on CNN last night, Trump is now leading by one point. pic.twitter.com/elwGZNqnZA

— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) August 30, 2024

But by this morning, the “surge” was in full effect.  And, at least from the perspective of those wagering real money on the largest prediction betting platform in the world, President Trump has made serious gains in the odds that he takes back the White House in November.

But just like back in the day on the streets of Tombstone, Doc Holliday’s wisdom holds true.  In any high-stakes card game, the odds are always with the House.  You should never underestimate the ability of those already holding the power… to keep holding onto it.

Even with the largest online prediction market hinting at a possible “surge” in votes, the danger of another questionable defeat surely couldn’t be too far from the mind of President Trump right now.  That danger has proven itself in the past.  And no doubt could again, no matter who the online “odds” favor from one day to the next.

But just like Kurt Russell and Val Kilmer had the guts to face stacked odds head-on with a boldness that can only spring from righteous purpose, I do believe President Trump has that same righteousness of purpose on his side —

No matter what the “odds” say.