Could Republicans Pick Up 3 House Seats With New Congressional Map?

Republicans picked up a huge opportunity after the North Carolina State Legislature approved a new congressional map that could flip several House seats.

“With state law allowing no role for the governor in redistricting, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper cannot take any action to block them from becoming law,” The News & Observer reports.

According to reports, 10 out of 14 new North Carolina congressional districts favor Republicans.

The state delegation is currently a 7-7 split.

🚨New: The North Carolina's congressional map has passed through the NC House and the NC Senate. The map is now law. The Governor can't veto it because redistricting plans in North Carolina are not subject to veto by the Governor. pic.twitter.com/t98MAqH5u2

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 26, 2023

North Carolina's new Congressional map: pic.twitter.com/88ZBofu7Iw

— Joe Bruno (@JoeBrunoWSOC9) October 25, 2023

Democrats accused the Republican-led legislature of gerrymandering the districts.

The News & Observer reports:

Democrats say the maps are gerrymandered, and they are likely to end up in the courts, where Republican Senate Majority Leader Paul Newton of Cabarrus County predicted they will be upheld as “fair and legal.”

Answering a question Wednesday from Democratic Sen. Mary Wills Bode, who said maps were drawn to favor Republicans, Sen. Warren Daniel said his fellow Republicans agree that “citizens deserve fair elections.”

House Minority Leader Robert Reives, a Chatham County Democrat, said the new maps lack representation for North Carolinians.

“People need to have a voice, sometimes just to let you know what you don’t know,” Reives said.

Critics of the process of drawing the maps gathered outside the Legislative Building for a news conference Wednesday, including Cassandra Stokes of the NC Black Alliance.

“When will this game of political gamesmanship stop, to ensure that access to resources and access to fair representation stands?” Stokes said. “When will you hold yourselves accountable? Because if you don’t, we will in 2024 and future election cycles.”

The New York Times said the new congressional districts would ensure “GOP dominance in a closely divided state.”

Republicans in North Carolina approved a heavily gerrymandered congressional map on Wednesday that is likely to knock out about half of the Democrats representing the state in the House of Representatives, ensuring GOP dominance in a closely divided state. https://t.co/tdSQ3ppASq

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 26, 2023

POLITICO added:

North Carolina’s new map, which was approved Wednesday by the state legislature, is particularly efficient at securing a GOP advantage in a state that’s closely divided for many statewide races — setting off a scramble among Republicans for the opportunity to run in the newly safe seats.

ADVERTISEMENT

The map packs as many Democratic voters as possible into three blue districts, while distributing Republicans across the remaining districts to make sure they remain largely out of reach for Democrats. The maps were drawn so Republicans would hold a strong majority of the state’s seats even in particularly bad years for the GOP.

The new map will remake the state’s delegation from an even split of seven Democrats and seven Republicans to one that would likely lock in 10 Republicans and three Democrats, with one competitive battleground seat that Democratic Rep. Don Davis currently holds.

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — The North Carolina General Assembly gave final approval Wednesday to new redistricting maps that will give Republicans an advantage in 10 of 14 districts next year and a good shot at winning an 11th district.

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 27, 2023

North Carolina’s New Voting Map Could Flip Multiple House Seats For Republicans https://t.co/Eup9mIhvH3 #OAN

— One America News (@OANN) October 26, 2023

CNN noted:

The redistricting process in North Carolina, where Republicans hold supermajorities in the state legislature, was expected to produce big gains for the GOP. It’s one of nearly a dozen states where legal and political skirmishes over congressional map-drawing have raged as each party jockeys for an edge ahead of the 2024 election.

The GOP gains in the Tar Heel state could help offset potential Democratic wins in redistricting litigation now pending in several other states across the South.

The North Carolina Democrats whose seats are directly endangered by the new plan are Reps. Jeff Jackson, who currently represents a Charlotte-area district; Wiley Nickel, who holds a Raleigh-area seat; and Kathy Manning, who represents Greensboro and other parts of north-central North Carolina.

ADVERTISEMENT

Jackson, a first-term congressman known for his straight-to-camera viral TikTok videos, declared on social media that the proposed congressional lines, which became public last week, meant that “I’m probably toast in Congress.” On Thursday, he announced he was jumping into the race for state attorney general.

State lawmakers overseeing redistricting released two potential maps last week, one of which would have knocked off a fourth Democrat because it would have drawn two of the state’s three Black House lawmakers – Davis and Rep. Valerie Foushee – into the same district. That version did not advance.